Manufacturing PMI returns to the boom and bust online, and the signal of comprehensive economic recovery is enhanced


On June 30, the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics and the China Federation of logistics and purchasing released the China purchasing managers' index (PMI). Data showed that the manufacturing PMI and non manufacturing business activity index both returned to the boom and bust line in June. According to the analysis, China's economy rebounded from the bottom in June, and the rebound trend was basically established. However, we also need to see that the proportion of enterprises in the current manufacturing industry that reflect insufficient market demand is still close to half, and the fundamentals of economic recovery still need to be further consolidated. We need to further expand effective demand, implement the supply and price stability of important raw materials and basic products, consolidate the momentum of economic recovery, and promote the linkage recovery of the industrial chain. China purchasing manager index Rise to the expansion range in an all-round way In June, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 50.2%, 54.7% and 54.1% respectively, 0.6, 6.9 and 5.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, all rising to the expansion range. Zhao Qinghe, Senior Statistician of the service industry survey center of the National Bureau of statistics, said that as the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation continued to improve, the implementation of a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy accelerated and took effect, and China's overall economic recovery accelerated. Wu Wei, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center, said that the business activity index and new order index in June were higher than the same period in recent three years. Combined with the index level and trend changes, the external impact of the epidemic on non manufacturing industry has been further weakened, and the recovery of non manufacturing industry has been significantly enhanced, showing a return to normalization. From the perspective of service industry, the business activity index of industries seriously affected by the epidemic in the early stage has rebounded, with railway transportation, air transportation and other industries higher than 65.0%, and the total business volume has increased month on month for two consecutive months. Road transportation, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and environmental governance, culture, sports and entertainment and other industries rose above the critical point, and the total business volume changed from decline to increase. In terms of market demand and expectation, the new order index and business activity expectation index of the service industry were 53.7% and 61.0% respectively, 10.0 and 5.8 percentage points higher than last month. Zhao Qinghe said that this shows that with the weakening impact of the epidemic, the market demand of the service industry has warmed up, and the confidence of enterprises has gradually recovered. Under the non manufacturing business activity index, the construction business activity index in June was 56.6%, up 4.4 percentage points from the previous month, rising to a higher boom range. Zhao Qinghe said that the smooth traffic and logistics policy has achieved practical results, and the poor transportation of raw materials in the construction industry has been alleviated, effectively ensuring the construction progress. From the perspective of market expectations, the expected index of business activities rebounded by 5.2 percentage points to 63.1%, and enterprises are optimistic about the development prospect of the industry in the near future. Wu Wei said that with the stable recovery of the manufacturing industry, the wholesale industry, road transportation and financial related activities related to production also recovered steadily. From the perspective of different types of enterprises, the business activity indexes of large, medium-sized and small enterprises are all above 50%, and have increased significantly compared with the previous month. With the change of the composite index, investment and consumption related activities have recovered significantly, and it is expected to achieve a balanced development in the second half of the year. Both supply and demand are driven by the recovery Manufacturing industry returns to expansion range In June, manufacturing PMI rose 0.6 percentage points to 50.2%, returning to the expansion range after contracting for three consecutive months. In terms of sub indexes, production index, new order index and supplier delivery time index are all above the critical point, while raw material inventory index and employee index are all below the critical point. This shows that manufacturing production has accelerated the recovery, market demand has improved, and the delivery time of raw material suppliers has significantly accelerated compared with last month. At the same time, the decline in the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to narrow, and the employment boom level of enterprises rose for two consecutive months. Zheng Houcheng, director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, told the securities times that the new order index was 50.40% in June, up 2.20 percentage points from the previous value, indicating that China needs to improve significantly under the background of stabilizing the national economic market and the steady growth of macro policies. New export orders recorded 49.50% in June, up 3.30 percentage points from the previous value, hitting a new high since May 2021, indicating that the year-on-year probability of export amount in June will remain at a high level. Zheng Houcheng predicted that as the country continues to open up the logistics channel and microcirculation, road transportation will be further unblocked, and the delivery time of suppliers will remain at a high position in June. From the perspective of industry, the PMI of equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry in June were 52.2% and 52.8% respectively, up 3.3 and 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the production index and new order index of the two industries increased significantly, significantly higher than the increase of the overall supply and demand index of the manufacturing industry. Wen Tao, an analyst at China Logistics Information Center, said that in June, after the domestic industrial chain supply chain recovered rapidly, the new momentum quickly returned to the rapid growth channel in the short term, showing strong vitality. The consumer goods industry also rose steadily. Hongta Securities Research Report believes that the economy ushered in a comprehensive recovery after the epidemic in June. It can be seen that in June, the service industry, construction industry and manufacturing industry recovered in an all-round way, the repair of both supply and demand sides was accelerated, and enterprises are expected to improve steadily. The market can be more optimistic about the subsequent economic repair. (Xinhua News Agency)

Edit:He Chuanning Responsible editor:Su Suiyue

Source:Securities News

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