Economy

The final outcome of the currency defense war launched by multiple Asian countries is still unknown

2024-05-07   

Recently, multiple Asian currencies have been experiencing significant fluctuations. Since April, the exchange rates of currencies such as the Japanese yen, Thai baht, and Indonesian rupiah have collectively plummeted due to the sharp decline in the US dollar. The exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar even fell below the 160 mark, reaching a new low in 34 years. Subsequently, multiple governments urgently intervened to "rescue foreign exchange", and the exchange rates of Japanese yen, Korean won, and other currencies against the US dollar saw a correction, marking the beginning of a "currency defense war". Where will Asian currencies go in the future? How does the RMB respond to this round of volatility? "The strong US dollar has" broken through "the currencies of many Asian countries." It's been a long time since it was so "cost-effective" to exchange for Japanese yen. Compared to the beginning of the year, now I can spend 50 yuan less for every 10000 yen exchanged. My living expenses have also been saved by about 10% compared to before. "Xiao Lv, who is studying in Japan, told China News Finance. Not only the Japanese yen, but since April, many Asian currencies have been deeply embroiled in a "depreciation storm" against the US dollar. As the US dollar index rose from around 104 and returned to the 106 level, the exchange rates of the Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah, Korean won, and Thai baht against the US dollar sharply declined, falling below the 83.5, 16000, 1400, and 37 levels in mid to late April. The dominant factor behind the "ice and fire duality" between Asian currencies and the US dollar is the strengthening of the US dollar. "Most Asian currencies are having to succumb to the strength of the US dollar. Driven by rising US bond yields and rising market risk aversion, the US dollar has generally strengthened in the foreign exchange market, leading to a decline in Asian currencies." In addition, the US March inflation and employment data exceeded market expectations, and the Federal Reserve postponed interest rate cuts, which will maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time. The strengthening of the US dollar has increased capital outflow pressure from emerging economies such as the Asia Pacific, exacerbating the risk of currency depreciation. "Wang Youxin, senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said in an interview with China News Finance. In addition to the external factor of the US dollar, the weak economic growth trend of some Asia Pacific countries also makes it difficult to provide internal support for stabilizing their currencies. Wang Youxin mentioned that against the backdrop of weak global economic recovery and increased uncertainty, the growth pressure of emerging economies in the Asia Pacific region is becoming increasingly prominent. At the same time, some Asia Pacific countries have experienced a decline in export trade since last year, resulting in a decrease in trade surplus and foreign exchange income, putting pressure on the depreciation of their currencies. The intervention of multiple Asian countries to save foreign exchange is closely related to currency and economy. As multiple Asian currencies experience a major shock, concerns about the Asian economy are also fermenting. "The depreciation of exchange rates and capital outflows not only raise import prices, but also bring pressure to domestic liquidity, credit financing, and increase the risk of economic downturn," said Wang Youxin. Especially for countries like Japan that heavily rely on imports for such goods, the negative impact of currency depreciation cannot be underestimated. Under the crisis of currency collapse, some Asian countries have realized the severity of the situation and started to take measures to "rescue foreign exchange". For example, the South Korean government has stated that it is highly vigilant about the exchange rate market. Bank of Indonesia

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