Economy

At the end of last year, China's foreign exchange reserves remained above 3.2 trillion US dollars - with conditions to maintain basic balance of international payments

2024-04-07   

The 2023 China International Balance of Payments Report recently released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange shows that in 2023, China's international balance of payments remained generally stable, with foreign exchange reserves remaining above $3.2 trillion at the end of the year. The resilience of China's foreign exchange market has significantly increased, market expectations have remained stable, and foreign exchange trading is rational and orderly. The report suggests that China's international balance of payments is more favorable and has a better foundation to maintain basic balance this year. On the one hand, the monetary policies of major developed economies will gradually adjust, and the global liquidity tightening situation will be alleviated to some extent; On the other hand, with the continuous release of macroeconomic policy effects, China's economy will continue to rebound and improve, and the supporting role of the basic international balance of payments will be further strengthened. The basic structure continued to play a stable role last year, with basic components such as current account and direct investment continuing to play a fundamental role in stabilizing international balance of payments. In 2023, China's current account surplus was 253 billion US dollars, which is 1.4% of its GDP, maintaining a reasonable equilibrium range. Among them, the resilience of goods trade has been maintained, the diversification of trade partners has been steadily promoted, the competitive advantage of export products has been continuously consolidated, the quality and efficiency of goods trade imports and exports have been improved, and the surplus scale continues to operate at a historical high. Service trade has steadily improved, and cross-border tourism and study abroad for residents have gradually resumed, driving up travel expenses, but still below pre pandemic levels. At the same time, China's trade in goods and services has deeply integrated, and the innovative development of digital trade has driven steady growth in revenue from emerging productive services such as telecommunications, computers, and information services. In 2023, China's non reserve financial account deficit reached $209.9 billion, forming a self balancing pattern with the current account surplus, and reserve assets remained stable. On the one hand, various investments in China have shown an overall net inflow trend. Among them, foreign equity direct investment maintained a net inflow, and the net inflow scale in the fourth quarter increased nearly twice compared to the average level in the second and third quarters; The net inflow of foreign investment in China's bonds in the fourth quarter was US $59.5 billion, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2020. On the other hand, domestic enterprises and other entities are conducting outbound investment in an orderly manner. Foreign direct investment remains stable at a high level, and the pace of enterprises going global remains steady; Affected by the international market environment and external liquidity changes, there has been a decrease in outward securities investment, while other investments such as outward deposits and loans have shown a net return. According to Guan Tao, Global Chief Economist of Bank of China Securities, the narrowing of the current account surplus in 2023 is mainly due to the widening of the trade deficit in services and the narrowing of the trade surplus in goods. In 2023, the capital account deficit narrowed, and the pressure of short-term capital outflows significantly eased. Last year, the balance of foreign exchange reserves increased by $110.3 billion, mainly due to the easing of the Federal Reserve's tightening expectations in the fourth quarter and the positive valuation effect brought about by the "double rise" of global stocks and bonds. "The stability of China's international balance of payments structure reflects the effectiveness of policies such as stabilizing the economy, foreign trade, and expectations, as well as the positive role of enhancing the resilience of the foreign exchange market." The report states that on the one hand, China has withstood pressure to promote economic recovery, steadily promoted high-level opening up to the outside world, and taken multiple measures to promote the stable development of foreign trade, continuously enhancing the confidence of domestic and foreign investors, and stabilizing market expectations. On the other hand, my foreign country

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