Economy

Consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery - Representative members discuss the main expected development goals for this year

2024-03-06   

GDP growth: around 5%, actively striving to achieve reasonable growth. The government work report proposes that China's GDP is expected to grow by around 5% this year. "This growth target is consistent with the 2023 target, reflecting the country's determination to maintain stability, consistency, and sustainability in policy expectation management, stabilize market expectations, and strengthen market confidence. It is a direction judgment for China's future development from 'confidence' to 'confidence', and releases a more positive expectation signal for China's medium - and long-term economic development." Tian Xuan, Vice Dean of the School of Finance at Wudaokou, Tsinghua University, said. "On the basis of achieving the growth rate target of China's gross domestic product in 2023, the target for this year is still firmly set at around 5%, reflecting the determination of the national level to promote the 'dual wheel drive' of effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity. This is in line with the affordability of policy tools and the sustainability of economic development, and reserves sufficient space for promoting the transformation of old and new driving forces and addressing the uncertainty of the external environment." Representative Tian Xuan said. Representative Tian Xuan believes that from an internal perspective, as the scar effect brought by the epidemic gradually subsides, the accelerated cultivation of new quality productivity, and a series of policies to expand domestic demand and boost confidence gradually emerge, they have provided strong momentum support for the achievement of various economic goals this year; From an external perspective, the growth rate of the US economy will slow down in 2023, and there is a high probability that the interest rate reduction cycle will begin in 2024. It is expected that the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar will strengthen, and the attractiveness of RMB assets will increase. The external support for China's economic development is also significantly strengthening. "Regarding the 5% economic growth target, the most important thing for 2024 is to stabilize expectations and strengthen confidence." Representative Tian Xuan stated that while maintaining policy consistency, continuity, and stability, we should focus on improving quality and efficiency through reform, focusing on high-level technological self-reliance and industrial upgrading, especially in the cultivation of new productive forces. Further efforts should be made to promote development through reform, fundamentally solving structural problems in economic development. Price increase: Precise regulation of around 3% to maintain stable prices. This year's government work report sets the consumer price increase for residents in 2024 at around 3%. "This expected target is consistent with the previous two years, at a moderate level, which is conducive to guiding market expectations, leaving enough space for macroeconomic policy regulation, and effectively supporting economic operation within a reasonable range." said Lan Fenghui, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and President of Uni Tai Taxation Firm Co., Ltd. The price level is a macroeconomic thermometer and also affects people's lives. It is necessary to maintain it at a moderate level. In 2023, China's CPI maintained a mild upward trend, which is in sharp contrast to the major developed economies suffering from high inflation. Commissioner Lan Fenghui stated that in recent years, China's fiscal and monetary policies have maintained a stable and moderate tone, while the industrial chain and supply capacity are sound, and the economic cycle is basically smooth, laying a solid foundation for maintaining overall stability in prices. In recent months, the CPI has decreased year-on-year. Regarding this, Commissioner Lan Fenghui stated that China's commodity supply is sufficient, and while fully meeting the living needs of the general public, prices are showing a downward trend

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