The Next "China" or China - International Institutions Intensively Raise China's Economic Growth Expectations


"The Chinese economy has shown tremendous development resilience and potential." "The growth rate of the Chinese economy is expected to exceed this year in 2024." "China remains a key engine of global economic growth." Against the backdrop of multiple uncertainties facing the global economy, international institutions have recently intensively raised their expectations for China's economic growth, casting a "vote of confidence" in the Chinese economy. ". Faced with a complex external environment, China has firmly promoted reform and opening up, and continued to implement policies and measures to stabilize growth, endowing the Chinese economy with strong endogenous momentum, resilience, and potential, greatly boosting the confidence of the global business community. Since the beginning of this year, the global economy has struggled to move forward due to negative factors such as geopolitical crises, spillover effects of US fiscal and monetary policies, and some Western countries engaging in so-called supply chain risk reduction. Faced with multiple unfavorable factors such as difficult global inflationary pressures, deteriorating trade environment, and sluggish international market demand, China's economy is at the forefront of stability, seeking progress while maintaining stability, and continuing to rebound and improve. The combination of macroeconomic regulation policies has shown remarkable effectiveness, attracting much attention from the outside world. Since the second quarter, international institutions have expressed optimism about the Chinese economy. The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs has taken the lead in raising China's economic growth forecast for this year in its mid year update report on the 2023 World Economic Situation and Outlook, from the 4.8% forecast at the beginning of the year to 5.3%. Amidst the positive trend of faster than expected economic growth in China in the third quarter, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have recently raised their expectations for China's economic growth in 2023 to 5.4% and 5.2%, respectively. More commercial institutions have been following suit. JPMorgan Chase has raised China's economic growth forecast for this year from 5% to 5.2%, Morgan Stanley has raised this forecast from 4.8% -4.9% to 5.1%, Citigroup has raised it from 5% to 5.3%, UBS has raised it from 4.8% to 5.2%, and Nomura Securities in Japan has raised it from 4.8% to 5.1%. Overall, relevant institutions have raised their expectations for China's economic growth this year to over 5%. Zhao Guangbin, Senior Economist at PwC China, said that it is expected that China's economic growth will approach 5.5% in 2023. With a series of policy measures taken by the government and private sector investment growth, China's economic growth rate is expected to exceed this year's in 2024. These bullish and upward adjustments have solid factual basis. In the face of complex and arduous challenges, the Chinese economy has withstood pressure and demonstrated strong resilience and attractiveness. Data shows that China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, showing impressive performance among major economies in the world. From January to October, there were 41947 newly established foreign-invested enterprises in China, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%. The actual investment in China by Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Switzerland, and the Netherlands increased by 110.3%, 94.6%, 90.0%, 66.1%, and 33.0% respectively. Marcos Pires, director of the Institute of Economics and International Studies at S ã o Paulo State University in Brazil, said that the Chinese economy has not only achieved growth, but also steadily improved the quality of development. Driven by the new energy generation equipment, batteries, and electric vehicle industry, China's Qing Dynasty

Edit:Li Ling Responsible editor:Chen Jie


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