What is the future trend of 1450 basis points depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in a month?


After maintaining a trend of rising for several consecutive months and hitting a new high in nearly six months in early February, the RMB exchange rate has recently experienced a wave of fluctuations. According to the data of China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, from February 1 to February 24, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar has been reduced by 1450 basis points. The RMB has depreciated by about 2% in the month. Under the pressure of the RMB, some people worry about whether the exchange rate will continue to fall? In response, experts said that the RMB as a whole showed a two-way fluctuation pattern with a stable trend. In the future, the positive factors supporting the RMB exchange rate will become more apparent. Data chart: RMB. Gong Hongyu said that "the recovery of the RMB exchange rate at the end of last year and the beginning of this year was driven by the simultaneous improvement of internal and external factors, while the current exchange rate change was mainly caused by the expected changes in the tightening pace of the external Federal Reserve's monetary policy." Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, pointed out in an interview with China New Finance. Since 2023, with the easing of inflation and the gradual moderation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase, the dollar index should have weakened. However, under the background of the recent US CPI data exceeding expectations, the market's expectation of the rate increase and the pace of the Federal Reserve's slowdown has weakened, which has led to the recent phased strengthening of the US dollar index. "The release of employment, private consumption, inflation and other data in the United States in January reflects that the current economic downturn in the United States is slowing down and still has some resilience, which is better than the market expectation, and then makes the market start to raise its forecast of the peak interest rate of the Federal Reserve, leading to the rise of the yield of US Treasuries and the recovery of the US dollar index, which brings adjustment pressure on the RMB exchange rate." Wang Youxin said. In February, the dollar index continued to strengthen, rising to 105 from around 101 at the beginning of the month. Against the background of the expected strengthening of the US dollar index, the exchange rates of sterling, euro and yen against the US dollar have declined to varying degrees. The onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar also fell to 6.96 from the shock of 6.75 at the beginning of the month. Data map: Guangxi Beibu Gulf Port Beihai Port Area is busy with foreign trade loading and unloading. Will there be a new wave of devaluation? The exchange rate of the RMB fluctuates. Some people are worried about whether there will be a new wave of depreciation of the RMB? Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher of the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, told the media that the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has declined, but it is still a strong currency, and the RMB has appreciated against other countries' currencies, and since February, the overall RMB has shown a two-way fluctuation pattern, with a stable trend. Wang Youxin believes that from the perspective of the follow-up trend, the Fed's interest rate increase policy may continue until May, before which, the dollar index will be supported by the tightening policy. "Of course, with the increase of the peak interest rate, the negative impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase policy on the economy will continue to accumulate and manifest. Although the U.S. economy slows down, the downward trend of the economy will remain unchanged. Therefore, before and after the May interest rate meeting may become a key time point for the change of the trend of the international foreign exchange market. After that, as the external constraints weaken, the positive factors supporting the RMB exchange rate will become more apparent." Wang Youxin said. The central bank pointed out in the fourth quarter of 2022 China's monetary policy implementation report on the 24th that it should adhere to the principle of market exchange

Edit:Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor:WeiZe

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