Economy

High level officials intensively study and judge the situation, study more new measures to stabilize the economy, and strengthen the steady growth policy in a timely manner

2022-04-11   

Recently, from the executive meeting of the State Council to the Symposium of experts and entrepreneurs on the economic situation, several important meetings have stressed that the stable operation of the economy is facing great challenges, and released a clear signal that macro policies need to be strengthened in advance and in time. Many economists interviewed by the reporter of the economic information daily said that in the face of the complexity and uncertainty of the domestic and foreign environment, the importance of stabilizing the economy is more prominent, and macro policies need to be further strengthened. It is expected that more stable growth policies will be introduced in the future. The Symposium of economic situation experts and entrepreneurs held on April 7 pointed out that the current world situation is complex and evolving, the domestic epidemic has occurred frequently recently, and some unexpected factors have exceeded expectations, bringing greater uncertainty and challenges to the smooth operation of the economy. We should not only strengthen our confidence, but also face up to difficulties. "We should strive to stabilize growth and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range, mainly to stabilize employment and prices. Policies and measures should be made forward and strengthened in time. Those that have been issued should be implemented as soon as possible, and those to be launched should be made clear as early as possible. At the same time, we should study and prepare new plans." Previously, the national standing committee meeting held on April 6 proposed that "the new downward pressure should be further increased. We should not only strengthen confidence, but also attach great importance to and be alert to new problems and challenges". It decided to implement the phased deferred payment of pension insurance premiums for industries in extreme poverty and deploy the timely use of monetary policy tools. The meeting called for "stepping up the implementation of the spirit of the central economic work conference and the measures of the government work report, and some can be implemented in advance". "Recently, the State Council and relevant departments have made a series of arrangements and taken more powerful policy measures to ensure that the macro policy force is properly advanced, so as to help enterprises rescue and smooth the economic cycle." Liu Xiangdong, deputy director of the Economic Research Department of the China Center for international economic exchanges, said that under the new changes in the internal and external environment, various contradictions and risks in the economic operation have been gradually exposed, the production and operation difficulties of market subjects have increased, the confidence in consumption, investment and export is insufficient, and the market expectation continues to weaken. Luo Zhiheng, chief economist of YueKai securities and President of the Research Institute, said that from several meetings, the current judgment of the situation is more cautious. In fact, from the meeting of the Finance Committee on March 16 to the national Standing Committee on March 29, to the national Standing Committee on April 6 and the Symposium of economic situation experts and entrepreneurs on April 7, the importance of steady growth is further emphasized, and the policy will be increased in due course. Experts believe that on the one hand, we should ensure that the policies that have been introduced are implemented early and effective. On the other hand, we should make plans and introduce new measures in relieving market players, stabilizing employment and prices, stimulating investment and consumption. In terms of fiscal policy, the Symposium of economic situation experts and entrepreneurs proposed to give full play to the leveraging role of local government special bonds to drive more private investment. On March 29, the national standing committee made arrangements for making good use of government bonds and expanding effective investment, requiring that the remaining special bond quota be issued as soon as possible. The quota issued in advance last year should be completed by the end of May and the quota issued this year should be completed by the end of September. Luo Zhiheng believes that at present, the fiscal policy should strengthen tax reduction and fee reduction, accelerate the progress of special bond issuance and fiscal expenditure, promote effective investment, promote infrastructure investment as soon as possible, hedge the contraction of demand, especially the decline of real estate and sluggish consumption, and reverse the sluggish expectation at the same time. In his view, under the impact of the epidemic, increasing the relief of micro entities and finding out the bottom of employment will be the policy focus in the short term. "Research and preparation of new plans" will continue to focus on anti epidemic relief and boosting the economy. Under the strategy of "dynamic clearing", we should be more scientific and accurate to reduce the adverse impact on people's livelihood and economy; We will provide appropriate financial subsidies and financial support to industries in difficulty and low - and middle-income groups severely affected by the epidemic. "We should pay attention to the problems in the process of forming effective investment in special debt projects: some special debt projects are not fully prepared, which makes it difficult to implement the projects; some projects need to strengthen inter departmental coordination before they can be implemented. Effective measures, including incentive and restraint measures, should be taken to make the projects truly implement and form effective investment." Yang Zhiyong, vice president of the Institute of financial strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the economic information daily. In terms of monetary policy, many people in the industry believe that the short-term internal and external environment, the tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and other factors have a limited impact on the implementation of China's monetary policy. China's monetary policy is "dominated by me", and there is room to further strengthen the operation to stabilize the real economy. The national standing committee meeting held on April 6 proposed to make timely and flexible use of various monetary policy tools such as refinancing, give better play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure, and increase support for the real economy. The Symposium of economic situation experts and entrepreneurs proposed to expand high-level opening to the outside world, do a good job in stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment, maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, and effectively deal with the uncertainty of the external environment. Wang Youxin, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, believes that we should make full use of the time window before the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again in May, further strengthen the operation of monetary policy, provide more liquidity to the market by reducing reserve requirements, increasing open market operation and the use of structural policy tools, meet the development needs of the real economy, stabilize social financing costs, and achieve an organic balance between promoting growth and preventing risks, stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment. "Monetary policy needs to continue to adhere to the principle of 'focusing on me', and the RMB exchange rate fluctuates in both directions. After the results of steady growth are shown, the RMB exchange rate will be stabilized from the economic fundamentals." Lou Feipeng, a researcher at the postal savings bank, said. Sheng Songcheng, Professor of economics and finance at China Europe International Business School, said that at present, China's monetary policy should pay more attention to the use of quantitative tools to avoid the impact of the adjustment of US monetary policy on China. The Symposium of economic situation experts and entrepreneurs proposed that "to keep the economic operation within a reasonable range is mainly to stabilize employment and prices". Liu Xiangdong believes that we should take more effective measures to stabilize prices and restore market demand. In the face of the supply impact caused by the epidemic and geographical conflicts, it is necessary to ensure the supply security of important materials such as energy and food, and adopt the combination of dredging and blocking to deal with the rising pressure of materials, energy and labor costs. The "sparse" measure is to actively guide the smooth flow of costs between upstream and downstream industries, strengthen the cleaning up of overdue accounts of enterprises, and alleviate the cash flow difficulties and profit pressure of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises. The measure of "blocking" is to severely crack down on hoarding and malicious speculation, and provide necessary structural subsidies for the production and life of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and low-income groups. Gao Ruidong, managing director and chief macroeconomist of Everbright Securities, said that according to the relevant analysis of the Symposium of economic situation experts and entrepreneurs, to further promote consumption and expand effective investment, first, increase the rescue efforts and financial support for the consumer industry, and second, accelerate the approval of investment projects and give play to the driving role of special bonds. Gao Ruidong believes that looking forward, the macro countercyclical hedging policy will continue to work, and more reflect the "forward force". The steady economic growth in the first quarter and the first half of the year can not only further stimulate the release of residents' consumption and the expansion of enterprise production capacity in the second half of the year, but also stabilize the confidence of market players as soon as possible, which is very important to achieve the annual economic goal. It is expected that the policies of various departments around expanding domestic demand, helping enterprises to rescue and stabilizing employment will be launched one after another, so as to achieve early landing and early effect, and better stabilize the expectations of market players. Looking forward to the next situation, Yang Zhiyong previously said that China's economy may bear greater downward pressure due to the epidemic and the global situation in a specific period of time. While China's economy was generally stable in the first quarter, there were also hidden worries. There was great downward pressure on the economy in March, but it is expected to stabilize in the second quarter. The economic trend of the whole year remained generally stable under the triple pressure. In his view, at present, while actively promoting the development of an open economy, policies should focus on protecting market players, activating market vitality and stimulating private investment, so as to turn economic policies into economic momentum. (Xinhua News Agency)

Edit:He Chuanning Responsible editor:Su Suiyue

Source:Economic Information Daily

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