How far are solid-state batteries from mass production
2025-05-14
Recently, multiple companies have announced production schedules or technological advancements for solid-state batteries. The concept of solid-state batteries continues to gain popularity in the capital market. As the most promising "next-generation power battery", what is the current development status of solid-state batteries? How far is it from true mass production? National ministries and local governments have recently introduced intensive policies to encourage solid-state batteries. In February of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments issued the "Action Plan for High Quality Development of New Energy Storage Manufacturing Industry", which clearly supports the development of solid-state batteries for energy storage, proposes to accelerate the technological research and development of long-life and high safety solid-state batteries, and promote the solid-state development of lithium and sodium batteries. The "2025 Industrial and Information Technology Standards Work Points" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in April proposed the establishment of a standard system for all solid state batteries to accelerate their industrialization process. Beijing, Shanghai and other places have incorporated solid-state batteries into their local industrial planning, highlighting their potential applications in new energy vehicles, energy storage, consumer electronics, low altitude economy and other fields. The global competitive landscape is surging, and foreign companies are actively promoting the commercial application of solid-state batteries based on their profound technological accumulation. Toyota plans to achieve all solid state battery vehicle testing by 2027 and mass production after 2030; South Korean Samsung SDI is expected to start mass production in 2027; Several start-up companies in the United States are focusing on breakthrough improvements in core performance such as energy density and charge discharge speed, accelerating the layout of technology patents and validation of mass production processes. Solid state batteries have sparked a new round of competition globally in terms of material research and development, patent layout, and industry standards, and have become a key technological high ground for reconstructing the new energy industry landscape. However, large-scale production still faces challenges in terms of technology, cost, and industrial chain: firstly, most positive and negative electrode materials will experience volume expansion and contraction during the insertion and extraction of lithium, which may cause separation between the solid electrode and electrolyte interface, leading to a decrease in battery life. Secondly, the material cost of all solid state batteries alone is as high as 2 yuan/watt hour, which is 3 to 5 times that of conventional liquid lithium-ion batteries. Thirdly, key materials such as solid electrolytes and lithium metal anodes have not yet formed a large-scale supply, and some technological patent barriers have hindered industrial development. For this reason, most domestic enterprises choose semi-solid battery technology as a transition, and semi-solid battery production lines of companies such as CATL, Honeycomb Energy, and Guansheng Co., Ltd. have been put into operation one after another. For a considerable period of time in the future, the power battery market will present a "three legged" pattern of conventional liquid, semi-solid, and all solid state batteries. It is expected that by 2027, semi-solid state batteries will be commercially applied in the high-end electric vehicle field, while all solid state batteries are in the stage of technological breakthroughs and small-scale vehicle validation, with early small-scale applications in niche scenarios such as eVTOL and robots. By 2027, all solid state batteries are expected to begin mass production, initially used in high-end electric vehicles, aerospace, home energy storage, and other fields that require high performance and safety. With the expansion of application scale and cost reduction, all solid state batteries are expected to reach a turning point in industrialization around 2030, and their market penetration rate is expected to grow rapidly thereafter. The next five years are not only a critical period for breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology, but also a strategic integration period for the industrial chain ecology. The industry needs to drive industrial upgrading through technological breakthroughs, drive cost reduction through industrial chain integration, drive market demand through innovative application scenarios, construct a standardized industry ecosystem through a standard system, activate innovation momentum through financial capital, and form a "five in one" coordinated development system. One is to strengthen the research and development of core technologies, promote the application of AI and large-scale models in the field of solid-state battery research and development, accelerate material screening, simulate lithium dendrite suppression strategies, shorten the research and development cycle of solid-state electrolyte materials, solid solid interface optimization, lithium metal negative electrode and other technical links. The second is to improve the supporting industrial chain, encourage car companies and battery companies to jointly build joint laboratories, and promote the vertical integration of "materials battery cells systems". Provide support for the localization of core equipment such as solid-state electrolyte coating machines. The third is to expand application scenarios, launch "unveiling and leading" demonstrations in new energy vehicles, grid energy storage, aerospace and other fields, prioritize the procurement of solid-state battery products, explore emerging markets such as eVTOL and humanoid robots, and dilute costs through large-scale applications. The fourth is to establish standards and recycling systems, accelerate the development of certification standards for the performance, safety, and cycle life of all solid state batteries, advance the layout of solid state battery recycling technology, and establish a closed-loop utilization network for key materials. The fifth is to establish a financial support chain of "basic research engineering commercial application", set up special funds for the research and development of key materials and device integration for solid-state batteries, increase financial support for start-up enterprises, and improve the risk compensation mechanism for solid-state batteries at all stages from technology development to commercial application. (Author Liu Jian is the Deputy Director of the Energy System Analysis Center at the Energy Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomics)
Edit:He Chuanning Responsible editor:Su Suiyue
Source:ECONOMIC DAILY
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