Economy

Looking at China's economic prospects from the perspectives of automobile production and sales, foreign trade market

2025-05-14   

What is the outlook for China's economy as the global economic recovery is currently hindered? Various parties have provided analysis from different perspectives, and the recent two sets of data have attracted attention. On May 12th, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers released data showing that in the first four months of this year, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 10 million vehicles for the first time in history, with year-on-year growth of 12.9% and 10.8% respectively. Among them, 642000 new energy vehicles were exported, a year-on-year increase of 52.6%. The outstanding performance of the strategic and pillar industry of automobiles reflects the deep logic of China's high-quality economic development. According to foreign media analysis, Chinese car companies are not only thriving domestically, but also winning the global market. BYD alone exported nearly 80000 vehicles in April, a year-on-year increase of over 90%, reflecting the enormous influence of Chinese car companies in overseas markets. Secondly, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 9th, the total import and export value of goods in China increased by 2.4% year-on-year in the first four months of this year, which is 1.1 percentage points faster than the first quarter. In April, the import and export of goods increased by 5.6% year-on-year, and the export increased by 9.3% year-on-year. One important aspect of foreign trade going against the wind is the strong support of Made in China and Created in China. In this regard, Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao, Deutsche Presse-Agentur and other foreign media used "beyond expectations" to evaluate. Reuters reported that in the face of uncertainty brought by US tariff policies, China's exports continued to maintain a growth rate close to double digits in April, indicating that the recent intensive policy measures have played a positive role. Through two sets of data, people not only feel the resilience of the Chinese economy, but also see the vast prospects of the Chinese economy. (1) Adjust against the cycle according to the time and situation, and stimulate the potential of ultra large scale markets with policy effectiveness. Last year, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 30 million units, with exports exceeding 5 million units, indicating that the industry's growth is mainly driven by domestic demand. On May 12th, the Ministry of Commerce released data showing that since the implementation of the car trade in policy in 2024, the cumulative number of subsidy applications has exceeded 10 million. Foreign media reports that China's trade in policy for old cars effectively offsets the impact of US tariffs on consumer confidence. As of May 11th, the number of applications for car trade in subsidies in 2025 reached 3.225 million, including 1.035 million for scrapped cars and 2.19 million for replacement cars. Among the newly replaced cars, new energy vehicles account for over 53%. This fully demonstrates that the car trade in policy effectively promotes consumption growth and green transformation. In March of this year, the General Office of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption", proposing to support local efforts to expand and implement the exchange of old for new consumer goods, and promote the green and intelligent upgrading of bulk durable consumer goods such as automobiles, home appliances, and home decoration; Carry out pilot reforms in automobile circulation and consumption, and expand the aftermarket consumption of automobiles such as car modification, leasing, sports events, and RV camping. The exchange of old for new consumer goods not only benefits millions of households, but also effectively drives the growth of sales of bulk durable consumer goods, which is a vivid footnote to the effectiveness of the "two new" policies. In the first quarter, the "two new" policies led to a year-on-year increase of 19% in investment in the purchase of equipment and tools nationwide, and a year-on-year increase of 4.6% in the total retail sales of consumer goods. In the face of the situation where the foundation for the sustained recovery and improvement of our country's economy still needs to be further stabilized and the impact of external shocks is increasing, the Politburo meeting of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on April 25th pointed out the need to "coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles", deploy a package of policy measures, and fully prepare plans. Efforts are being made to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, expand the scope and improve the quality of the implementation of the "two new" policies, and strengthen the implementation of the "two pronged" construction... A number of policy measures with strong leverage and tangible effects are being pushed forward. The market has responded, policies have responded, market confidence is strong, and social expectations are stable. Practice has taught us that being good at grasping prominent contradictions with wide impact and strong spillover effects, concentrating efforts, and breaking through difficulties, can achieve the effect of leading by example and grasping the whole picture. Scientific macroeconomic regulation and effective government governance are the confidence we have in dealing with various risks and challenges. The synergy between the "tangible hand" and the "intangible hand" is opening up imaginative space for high-quality development in the governance efficiency of the Chinese economy. By leveraging the strategic guidance of national development planning, improving policy coordination mechanisms, enhancing the forward-looking, targeted, and effective nature of macroeconomic regulation, and promoting multi-objective dynamic balance, we are fully capable of responding to the uncertainty of rapid changes in the external environment with the certainty of high-quality development. (2) Promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, and leverage economic vitality with new quality productivity. Today's Chinese automotive industry is like a surge of technological innovation. CATL has released a new battery with a cycle life of over 10000 cycles, capable of maintaining a 90% energy retention rate in an environment of minus 40 degrees Celsius; Entering the welding and assembly workshop of GAC Trumpchi Yichang factory, over 500 robots work together, and a new car can be produced in as fast as 52 seconds... The transformation towards high-end, intelligent, and green is ubiquitous, and the higher-level dynamic balance of demand driving supply and supply creating demand is shining from concept to reality. Break through bottlenecks, overcome difficulties, and create consumer highlights. The new intelligent cockpit developed by Wuling Motors can instantly recognize 8 dialects and 12 heavy accents with a high recognition rate of 95%; Huawei has released the world's first fully liquid cooled megawatt level supercharger, compressing charging time from 1 to 2 hours to 15 minutes... Capturing the diversified, personalized, and high-quality needs of the new generation of consumers, and opening up demand space through supply upgrades, new energy vehicles have risen from being "unpopular" to today's "market darlings". Tailored to local conditions, collaborative innovation, forging industry strengths. Based on industrial resources, Anhui has accelerated the implementation of the "Vehicle Core Collaboration" technology research project, strengthened the joint research and development of government, industry, academia, research and application, and built an open ecological laboratory for operation. In the first quarter of this year, the production of automobiles and new energy vehicles has consistently ranked first in the country. Placing the development of new quality productive forces tailored to local conditions in a more prominent strategic position, taking technological innovation as the guide and the real economy as the foundation, accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system, and consolidating the foundation of a manufacturing powerhouse. Aim at the forefront, open up cooperation, and maintain competitive advantage. At the just concluded Shanghai Auto Show, over a hundred global debut models were unveiled, with 70% of the exhibited cars being new energy vehicles and a cluster of "black technology". The German newspaper "Die Welt" lamented that visiting the Shanghai Auto Show would leave a deep impression, "China lives in the future". From "technology introduction" to "technology feedback", from "attracting investment" to "outward investment", from "adapting standards" to "formulating standards", firmly grasping core technologies in one's own hands, winning new competitive advantages, and opening up new prospects for cooperation. In the first four months, China's exports of high-tech products increased by 7.4% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 20% of exports and driving overall export growth by 1.3 percentage points; In the first quarter, the added value of China's high-tech manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 9.7% year-on-year, and the output of servers and 3D printing equipment increased by 66.3% and 44.9% respectively year-on-year... The momentum of innovation engine is surging, and the Chinese economy is full of "new energy"; The flourishing growth of the "innovation rainforest" is the confidence of China's economy to overcome cycles and resist risks. By seamlessly connecting the innovation chain and the industrial chain, and relying on high-level technology for self-reliance and self-improvement, China's economic potential is unlimited. (3) Leading the global low-carbon trend and adding development momentum to the comprehensive green transformation. Green and low-carbon is the fundamental solution to ecological and environmental problems, and it is also the trend of the international community. In the first four months, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 4 million units, with a growth rate of over 45%, in line with the trend of industrial transformation and green low-carbon era. Green production and lifestyle are moving in the opposite direction. Use green energy as much as possible in the factory, upgrade equipment to achieve low-carbon manufacturing, and continuously reduce waste emissions; Based on industrial digitization, we aim to build a comprehensive carbon reduction "chain" and ensure that energy conservation and carbon reduction are traceable. Today's Chinese new energy vehicle enterprises are committed to collaborating on emission reduction through various measures such as energy regeneration, product energy conservation, material recycling, and technological innovation, in order to make the green background of the industry brighter and brighter. In the streets and alleys, new energy vehicles with green license plates shuttle back and forth, and more young consumers choose new energy vehicles as their "first car in life"; The interaction between vehicles and the internet is becoming increasingly mature, and new energy vehicles have transformed into "mobile power banks". They can not only charge from the grid, but also transmit electricity back to the grid... New energy vehicles are widely popular and integrated into various scenarios, becoming an important carrier of green and low-carbon life. Adhere to the "simultaneous optimization" of industrial structure and consumption structure, integrate the supply and demand sides, and continuously form more "green intersections", which will effectively release new consumption vitality. Chinese manufacturing and overseas demand are heading in both directions. Data shows that the countries with the highest automobile exports from China in the first quarter of this year are Mexico, the United Arab Emirates, Russia, Belgium, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and Australia. A well-known Brazilian automotive blogger stated that Chinese new energy vehicles have become a new option for Brazilians to purchase cars. Ricardo Bastos, President of the Brazilian Electric Vehicle Association, said, "We need to replace fossil fuels with clean energy, which is a global industry transformation. Seizing opportunities for intelligent and green development, adhering to the" global+local "approach," Made in China "not only meets the needs of global consumers for a better life, but also drives and leads the global transportation energy transformation. China's' green production capacity 'is enriching global supply and helping with energy conservation and carbon reduction. For every 3 kWh of electricity consumed in China, 1 kWh is green electricity; China's wind power, photovoltaic and other products are exported to more than 200 countries and regions, helping many countries use clean energy; In the past 10 years, China has promoted a cumulative reduction of over 60% and 80% in the average cost per kilowatt hour of global wind and photovoltaic power projects, respectively... China is undoubtedly a promoter and contributor to providing "green power" to the world. The more "green content" there is in development, the more "gold content" there is in growth. Since the beginning of this year, the construction of zero carbon factories has accelerated, focusing on cultivating new growth points such as green buildings. The "Shagehuang" new energy base is being laid out... We are accelerating the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development. If we see it right, we will work hard. We will definitely turn green into gold. We will steadfastly handle our own affairs and expand high-level opening-up to the outside world. In China, we see the future and confidence. ”This is the world impression of China today, and also a true portrayal of China tomorrow. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:People's Daily

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