The "City of Trillions" has made a steady start to the first quarter, with emerging industries showing frequent highlights
2025-05-12
In China, there are 27 cities with a regional gross domestic product exceeding 1 trillion yuan in 2024, known as the "trillion city". Recently, the statistical departments of these cities released the economic performance for the first quarter, with 8 cities showing a regional GDP growth rate of 6% or above, and 18 cities showing a growth rate of 5.4% or above, mostly outperforming the overall GDP growth rate of 5.4% in the first quarter. In the first quarter, the three pillars of investment, consumption, and exports in multiple "trillion dollar cities" showed a good development trend, with strong economic growth momentum. Emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, robots, and biomedicine performed outstandingly. Experts say that the national economy started well in the first quarter, with the cultivation and growth of new quality productive forces, and high-quality development moving towards a new direction, demonstrating the resilience and potential of China's economy. Multiple cities have strong growth momentum. In terms of total economic output, Shanghai and Beijing both exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan in the first quarter, ranking in the top two; The gross domestic product of Shenzhen and Chongqing in the first quarter was 895.049 billion yuan and 757.479 billion yuan respectively, ranking third and fourth. In terms of growth rate, Yantai, Hefei, and Zhengzhou ranked among the top three, with growth rates of 6.9%, 6.6%, and 6.2%, respectively. Multiple cities have strong economic growth momentum. In the first quarter, fixed assets investment (excluding farmers) in Beijing increased by 24% year on year, reflecting a 1.3 times increase in equipment purchase investment for enterprises to expand production capacity. Fixed assets investment in Shanghai increased by 6.5% year on year, 1.7 percentage points higher than the previous year, and industrial investment increased by 22.5%. Lu Zhengwei, Chief Economist of Industrial Bank, analyzed that since the beginning of this year, fiscal policy has continued to exert force, providing strong support for infrastructure investment. Manufacturing investment remains resilient, although export uncertainty may affect corporate investment, the continued implementation of large-scale equipment renewal policies will provide support for manufacturing investment. The effect of boosting consumption policies continues to be evident. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods in Nanjing increased by 7.5%. The joint efforts of the "trade in" policy for consumer goods and the subsidy policy for purchasing new 3C products in Jiangsu Province have led to a 44.9%, 33.9%, and 21.7% increase in retail sales of communication equipment, cultural office supplies, household appliances, and audiovisual equipment for units above designated size, respectively; The automobile consumption policy has shown significant effectiveness, with retail sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 128.7%. In terms of exports, Hefei, Hangzhou, and Nantong led the way with growth rates of 19.2%, 18.7%, and 17.3% respectively in the first quarter. The foreign trade structure continues to optimize, with exports of "new three types" products in Hefei reaching 10.94 billion yuan, an increase of 44.2%. Emerging markets accelerated their expansion, and Hangzhou exported 71.2 billion yuan to countries jointly building the "the Belt and Road", up 23.7%. Faced with the complex situation of increasing external pressure and persistent internal difficulties, all regions and departments have thoroughly implemented the decisions and deployments of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, solidly promoted high-quality development, and continuously exerted effective policies on stock and a package of incremental policies. Technological innovation, transformation and upgrading have been steadily promoted, and the economic operation has started steadily, with development moving towards a new and positive direction. ”Zheng Xuegong, Director of the National Economic Accounting Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, previously stated. The Party Group of the National Bureau of Statistics recently published an article in the "Qiushi" magazine, stating that "China's economy is moving towards new development, and the role of new quality productivity as a 'key variable' is becoming increasingly prominent. The accelerated large-scale application of domestic artificial intelligence models has not only driven the growth of production demand for related products, but also become a new tool to promote the improvement of productivity in various industries." Beijing's high-precision and cutting-edge fields have shown active performance, with production of lithium-ion batteries, new energy vehicles, integrated circuits and other products increasing by 3.7 times, 1.4 times and 18.3% respectively in the first quarter. The total output value of Shanghai's three leading industries' manufacturing industry increased by 7.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, with a growth rate 3.7 percentage points faster than the city's total output value of industrial enterprises above designated size. Among them, the output value of artificial intelligence manufacturing industry increased by 13.2%, the integrated circuit manufacturing industry increased by 8.9%, and the biopharmaceutical manufacturing industry increased by 2.8%. This year's government work report proposes to cultivate and strengthen emerging and future industries. Since the beginning of this year, robots have not only entered exhibitions, racetracks, and homes from laboratories, but also entered the first quarter economic performance reports of multiple cities. The production of industrial robots in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou increased by 18.6%, 40.1%, and 62.7% respectively, while the production of service robots in Suzhou increased by 165%. New quality productivity has been identified as an important goal for the next stage of development in many regions. Zhengzhou proposed to fully leverage its industrial advantages in the next stage, promote the accelerated formation of new quality productive forces, and further consolidate the positive trend of economic recovery. Ningbo has proposed to firmly shoulder the responsibility of being the "economic powerhouse" and accelerate the cultivation of new quality productive forces. In the first quarter, the third industry played a prominent role as a "ballast stone" for economic growth, with the service industry rebounding and improving. Under the influence of policy dividends, technological innovation breakthroughs, and market demand recovery, the service industry has rebounded and shown a growth pattern driven by the three engines of 'digital+green+intelligent'. ”Wen Bin, Chief Economist of China Minsheng Bank, said. The driving role of the tertiary industry is significant. In the first quarter, the added value of Wuhan's tertiary industry was 298.946 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. Among them, the scientific research and technology service industry, transportation and warehousing, and postal industry increased by 23.2%, 11.2%, and 7.9% respectively. The added value of Chengdu's service industry increased by 6.1% year-on-year, the added value of leasing and business services increased by 11.4%, and the added value of information transmission software and information technology services increased by 11.3%. Zhang Di, Chief Macro Analyst of China Galaxy Securities, stated that under the trend of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, productive service industries such as information software and leasing business grew strongly in the first quarter. Recently, the central and local governments have successively made efforts to promote the growth of service consumption. The Ministry of Commerce and other departments recently issued the "Comprehensive Pilot Work Plan for Accelerating the Expansion and Opening up of the Service Industry" and the "Notice on Several Measures to Promote the Expansion and Upgrading of Domestic Service Consumption". Guangzhou proposes to promote the expansion and opening up of the service industry, facilitate the landing of international medical institutions in wholly foreign-owned hospitals, and support foreign-invested enterprises in the development and application of human stem cell and gene diagnosis and treatment technologies. Zhao Wei, Chief Economist of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, stated that the recovery of the supply side of the service industry in the second quarter is expected to continue supporting the improvement of service consumption, and investment in the service industry will also continue to improve. (New Society)
Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan
Source:China Securities Journal
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