Economy

The month on month CPI in April shifted from a decrease to an increase, and the core CPI growth rate remained stable

2025-05-12   

On May 10th, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in April, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for residents increased by 0.1% from a 0.4% decrease in the previous month, and decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with the same decrease as the previous month. The core CPI has turned from flat to rising month on month, with an increase of 0.2%; The year-on-year increase is 0.5%, and the growth rate remains stable. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 0.4% month on month, with the same decrease as last month and a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%, expanding the decrease by 0.2 percentage points compared to last month. Dong Lijuan, Chief Statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated that although international input factors have had a certain downward impact on prices in some industries, China's economic foundation is stable and resilient, various macro policies are coordinated, high-quality development is solidly promoted, and prices in some areas are showing positive changes. The significant rebound in travel service prices can be seen from the month on month perspective. In April, CPI shifted from a decrease to an increase, with an increase of 0.2 percentage points higher than the seasonal level. Dong Lijuan analyzed that this is mainly driven by the recovery of food and travel services. Data shows that in April, food prices increased by 0.2% month on month, 1.4 percentage points higher than the seasonal level. Among them, due to factors such as a decrease in import volume, beef prices increased by 3.9% month on month; In the initial stage of the new fruit market, the seasonal supply decreased, and the prices of potatoes and fresh fruits increased by 4.7% and 2.2% respectively compared to the previous period; The prices of fresh vegetables and pork have decreased by 1.8% and 1.6% respectively, both of which are smaller than the seasonal decline. In addition, due to the combined impact of demand recovery and holiday factors, travel service prices have rebounded significantly. Dong Lijuan stated that in April, air tickets, transportation rental fees, hotel accommodation, and tourism prices increased by 13.5%, 7.3%, 4.5%, and 3.1% respectively compared to the previous month, all of which were higher than seasonal levels. The total impact on the CPI month on month increase was about 0.1 percentage points. From a year-on-year perspective, the CPI slightly decreased in April. Dong Lijuan analyzed that this was mainly due to the impact of the downward trend in international oil prices. In April, energy prices decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, gasoline prices decreased by 10.4% year-on-year, affecting CPI by about 0.38 percentage points year-on-year, which is the main factor driving the year-on-year decline in CPI. In April, food prices decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, narrowing the decline by 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, affecting a decrease of about 0.03 percentage points in CPI. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.5% and remained stable. In April, the core CPI, which better reflects the basic price level, increased by 0.5% year-on-year, the same as last month, indicating a stable price trend since early next year. ”Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, stated that in May, the central bank and other departments launched a "package of financial support policies" including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts. It is expected that new incremental policies, including fiscal stimulus to promote consumption, will also be introduced soon, providing support for price trends. In April, demand in some industries increased, and PPI decreased by 0.4% month on month, the same decrease as last month. Dong Lijuan stated that one of the main reasons for the decline in PPI in April was the impact of international input factors on the downward trend of prices in related domestic industries. For example, the decline in international crude oil prices has led to a month on month decrease in domestic oil related industry prices. In April, prices in the oil and gas extraction industry decreased by 3.1% month on month. The second is the seasonal decline in some domestic energy prices. Dong Lijuan analyzed that heating in the north has completely ended, and coal demand has entered the traditional off-season. In April, coal mining and washing industry, as well as coal processing prices, both decreased by 3.3% month on month. New energy generation has low costs and strong substitution effects, coupled with an increase in wind power output, resulting in a 0.3% month on month decrease in electricity and heat production and supply industry prices. The total impact of the three industries mentioned above on PPI decreased by about 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous period. It is worth mentioning that China's macro policies such as promoting consumption have been strengthened and expanded, high-tech industries have accelerated their growth, demand in some industries has increased, and prices in some fields have shown positive changes. The supply-demand relationship in some industries has improved, and the price decline has narrowed. Dong Lijuan introduced that infrastructure construction in various regions is steadily advancing, and cement enterprises are executing well in staggered production. In April, the year-on-year price decline of black metal smelting and rolling processing industry and non-metallic mineral products industry narrowed by 1.4 and 1.0 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month. Policies such as promoting consumption and updating equipment continue to be effective, and the release of demand for some consumer goods and equipment manufacturing products has driven the price recovery of related industries. Dong Lijuan introduced that in April, the year-on-year decline in prices of household washing machines narrowed by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the year-on-year decline in prices of food manufacturing and new energy passenger vehicles both narrowed by 0.2 percentage points. The development of high-tech industries drives up prices in related industries. Dong Lijuan said that in April, the manufacturing price of wearable smart devices increased by 3.0% year-on-year, the manufacturing price of aircraft increased by 1.3% year-on-year, the manufacturing price of micro motors and components increased by 1.2% year-on-year, the server price increased by 1.0% year-on-year, and the manufacturing price of ships and related devices increased by 0.8% year-on-year. In addition, Dong Lijuan introduced that China continues to promote trade diversification, and the expansion of the market has led to a year-on-year increase or decrease in prices in some export industries. In April, the prices of integrated circuit packaging and testing series increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and the manufacturing prices of semiconductor device specialized equipment increased by 1.0% year-on-year; The year-on-year price decline of tractor manufacturing, electronic device manufacturing, and textile and clothing industry narrowed by 1.2, 0.7, and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:China Securities Journal

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