Economy

The central bank has continued to increase its MLF for two consecutive months, injecting medium-term liquidity into the market

2025-04-25   

On April 24, the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "Central Bank") announced that, in order to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system, on Friday, April 25, 2025, it will carry out the operation of 600 billion yuan MLF (medium-term lending facility) in the form of fixed quantity, interest rate bidding and multi price winning, with a term of one year. Given that the MLF maturity amount this month is 100 billion yuan, the central bank's MLF caliber will achieve a net injection of 500 billion yuan. This will also be the second consecutive month that the central bank has increased its MLF volume. In March, the central bank launched a 450 billion yuan MLF and achieved a net investment of 63 billion yuan after hedging 387 billion yuan of maturing volume. Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes in an interview with reporters that the central bank has continued to increase its MLF for two consecutive months, and the increase in volume this month has significantly expanded compared to last month's 63 billion yuan, indicating that the central bank has increased its efforts to inject medium-term liquidity into the market through MLF. On the one hand, this month launched the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra long term special treasury bond and 500 billion yuan of special treasury bond this year. In addition, local government bonds will continue to be issued at a faster pace in the future, which means that the bond market will usher in a larger issuance peak. The central bank needs to ensure the smooth issuance of government bonds through appropriate liquidity arrangements, which reflects the coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy. On the other hand, there was a sudden change in the external economic and trade environment in April, and macroeconomic policies will significantly strengthen in the direction of stabilizing growth. Among them, the central bank's significant increase in MLF reflects the policy orientation of maintaining sufficient liquidity and increasing support for the real economy, releasing signals of monetary policy to stabilize growth. In addition to the maturity of 100 billion yuan MLF, there are also 1.2 trillion yuan 3-month buyout reverse repurchase and 500 billion yuan 6-month buyout reverse repurchase due in April. The Chief Economist of CITIC Securities clearly believes that the increased investment scale of MLF this month may also be to hedge against the maturity pressure of buyout style reverse repurchase. Wang Qing expects that the central bank's buyout style reverse repurchase will also be in a large-scale net release state this month. Mingming believes that in April, due to external factors, the market has sufficient expectations for hedging with a broad monetary policy. However, since April, the tools for reducing interest rates and reserve requirement ratios have not been implemented. At present, the central bank has chosen to increase the net investment scale of MLF first, and it is expected that the possibility of further tightening monetary instruments such as reserve requirement ratio cuts in April will be reduced. Looking ahead, the necessity of policy tools such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio from a long-term perspective remains high. In addition, since March, the MLF operation has been adjusted from single price bidding to multi price bidding (i.e. American style bidding), and there is no longer a unified bidding rate. This marks the complete disappearance of the policy attribute of MLF interest rates, and MLF returns to the positioning of liquidity injection tools, forming the central bank's liquidity tool system together with other maturity tools. After the policy interest rate attribute faded out, the tool positioning of MLF became clearer, focusing on providing one-year liquidity. ”Industry experts said that at present, the central bank has a rich liquidity toolbox and a more reasonable term distribution. In the long term, there are reserve ratio reductions and treasury bond bond trading, in the medium term, there are MLF, buyout reverse repo operations and various structural instruments, and in the short term, there are open market 7-day reverse repo, temporary overnight positive and temporary overnight reverse repo. In the future, the central bank's liquidity management will be more efficient and precise, with more scientific and flexible regulatory efforts and pace, better balancing multiple objectives. (New Society)

Edit:Yao jue Responsible editor:Xie Tunan

Source:Securities Daily

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