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International institutions raise China's economic growth expectations, foreign media: measures to boost consumption show results

2025-03-28   

According to the South China Morning Post on March 24th, the Chinese economy performed strongly at the beginning of the year, laying a solid foundation for annual economic growth. Several international organizations have recently raised their expectations for China's economic growth, demonstrating their confidence in the Chinese economy. According to a screenshot report from the South China Morning Post, the latest forecast from international investment bank Morgan Stanley shows that China's GDP growth rate will reach 4.5% in 2025, an increase of 50 basis points from the previous forecast. Morgan Stanley pointed out that the "stronger than expected starting point" of the Chinese economy and the growth of capital expenditures are the main reasons for the upward adjustment of the forecast. Previously, HSBC and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) also raised their expectations for the Chinese economy. HSBC has raised its forecast for China's economic growth to 4.8%. In its economic outlook released on March 17th, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicted a global economic growth rate of 3.1% by 2025, and raised its forecast for China's 2025 growth rate to 4.8%. HSBC emphasized in its research report that "the government's increased support for growth, stronger policies to boost domestic consumption, and better than expected economic activity data are the main reasons why we hold a more positive attitude towards growth." The analysis suggests that international institutions' upward adjustment of China's economic growth expectations is closely related to the boost of domestic consumption, and the recently launched "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" is an important measure aimed at consolidating growth momentum and stimulating consumption vitality in China. Foreign media has given high attention to this, believing that it is a crucial step for China's economy to achieve sustainable growth, and the multi pronged strategy reflects China's determination to boost consumer confidence. The "Plan" introduces thirty specific measures, covering multiple aspects such as consumption, employment, elderly care, healthcare, education, etc. It responds to specific issues such as wage income, stock market, and parenting, and enhances people's confidence and willingness to consume through a combination of policies. According to CNN, the Chinese government has set its economic growth target for 2025 at around 5%, and the key to achieving this goal is to boost domestic consumption. According to reports, China has launched a "special action plan" aimed at boosting domestic consumption. The plan covers multiple aspects such as increasing residents' income, establishing a childcare subsidy system, and expanding the "trade in" program, aiming to promote economic growth by increasing consumption and reducing dependence on exports. According to Huang Zichun, a macroeconomist at the British economic research firm Capital Economics, official data from China shows that retail sales in the first two months of this year increased by 4.0% year-on-year, slightly higher than expected, indicating that China's fiscal stimulus measures may have begun to take effect. Bloomberg reports that China's efforts to boost consumption have been effective, and Chinese consumer sentiment has significantly improved. The latest survey by Deutsche Bank shows that Chinese consumer sentiment has greatly improved compared to last year. According to a report released by Deutsche Bank, approximately 54% of respondents surveyed this quarter stated that they feel their financial situation is better than a year ago, which is higher than the average of 44% in 2024. The survey results also showed that the proportion of respondents expecting an increase in income in the next year has risen to 60%, marking the second consecutive quarter of increase. This survey result indicates that China's actions to boost household confidence and consumption are achieving increasing results. Following China's proposal to implement more effective measures to boost consumer demand, this special action plan is another step taken by China, and it is a good start. The government is addressing key bottlenecks and implementing important measures aimed at stabilizing income and reducing the burden of childcare, healthcare, and elderly care Bloomberg economic analysts said. According to CNBC, the Chinese government's "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" aims to boost consumption through comprehensive measures such as expanding domestic demand, increasing income, and optimizing investment channels. The plan indicates that the government is addressing the deep-seated structural issues that hinder consumption, in order to lay the foundation for the long-term development of the consumer industry. (New Society)

Edit:Lin Bodan Responsible editor:Li Yi

Source:People.cn

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