According to customs statistics, in the first 10 months of 2024, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 36.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Among them, exports amounted to 20.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7%; Imports amounted to 15.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.2%; The trade surplus was 5.58 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.6%. Feng Lin, Executive Director of Oriental Jincheng Research and Development Department, analyzed that the year-on-year growth rate of exports in October was 12.7%, a significant increase of 10.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, exceeding the market's general expectations. In addition, the export volume in October increased by 1.8% month on month, and the performance was significantly stronger than seasonal. This has accelerated the cumulative export growth rate from January to October to 5.1%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the previous value. The export growth rate in October exceeded expectations, mainly due to the disappearance of short-term disturbance factors, the low export base in October last year, as well as the strong growth of new foreign trade drivers and the current resilience of external demand Feng Lin believes. The year-on-year export growth rate in October increased significantly compared to the previous month, and reached the highest monthly growth rate since July 2022. According to Shao Xingyu, an analyst at Guoxin Securities, the growth rate this month is significantly stronger than expected due to the combination of multiple factors. In the future, it is highly likely that the export growth rate will achieve stable and rapid growth within the year. The export situation next year will depend on the progress of external economic recovery and overseas trade policies. Specifically, what are the reasons for the unexpected export growth rate in October and the significant increase in year-on-year growth compared to the previous month? Feng Lin summarized that firstly, short-term disturbances such as extreme weather in September and global shipping disruptions had a significant impact on exports, and the effects of these factors dissipated to varying degrees in October. Secondly, the base for the same period last year was relatively low. Last October, the month on month export rate was -7.5%, significantly lower than the average level of -3.9% in the past decade. The third is to maintain strong growth in new export drivers. According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, cross-border e-commerce exports increased by 15.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, which is 9 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate. There is no significant change in the trade environment in October, and cross-border e-commerce exports will continue to maintain high growth. In addition, from the perspective of commodity structure, in terms of horizontal comparison, the products with higher cumulative year-on-year absolute growth rate in export amount this month are still related products such as ships, integrated circuits, and automobiles. However, from the perspective of marginal changes, there has been a significant improvement in the export of upstream resource goods this month, with an improvement in the cumulative growth rate of aluminum, rare earths, steel, and other products. It is worth noting that among the main export commodities this month, rare earths have seen the most significant increase in growth rate. The export value of rare earths in October increased by 7.09% year-on-year, while the data for August and September were -36.95% and -42.34%, respectively. Overall, Shao Xingyu believes that the export growth rate in October significantly exceeded market expectations, indicating that the external demand market is still relatively strong. Looking ahead, the global manufacturing recovery process will continue, and there may be some demand for order grabbing in the first half of next year. In the future, China's exports will continue to maintain a certain growth rate. At the same time, with the successive introduction and implementation of a series of countercyclical policies in China, the growth rate of imports will gradually improve. Looking ahead, Feng Lin predicts that the export growth rate in November will drop to single digits. Overall, China's exports will continue to maintain positive growth in the fourth quarter. However, against the backdrop of slowing external demand, there is a greater risk of a downward trend in export growth rate in the first two months of the year. It can be seen that the new export order index in October has been declining for the second consecutive month and is already at a relatively low level. Since the second half of the year, JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI index has been in a contraction range for three consecutive months. Looking back at history, it can be seen that China's export growth rate is highly correlated with this indicator. (New Society)