On May 28th, Guangzhou officially announced a package of new policies for the real estate market, covering further optimization of housing purchase restrictions, housing credit policies, and housing unit recognition, exceeding market expectations, making it the "most relaxed" in first tier cities. On the same evening, the Shenzhen Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau announced a reduction in the minimum down payment ratio and lower interest rate for personal housing loans. Analysis suggests that a package of policies helps boost confidence in the real estate market, activate market transactions, promote the destocking of new and second-hand housing, and release positive signals to stabilize expectations and prices. What changes will policies bring to the real estate market? How will the qualifications, down payment ratio, loan qualifications, and mortgage interest rates that homebuyers are generally concerned about be adjusted? The "three sets of housing" loan policy was liberalized. The social security period for non registered residence families to buy houses in the purchase restricted area in Guangzhou was shortened to 6 months, which was the most relaxed Notice on Further Promoting the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Guangzhou (hereinafter referred to as the Notice) in the first tier cities, and the self-discipline mechanism of Guangdong market interest rate pricing adjusted the differentiated housing credit policy in Guangzhou, involving the purchase of houses by non registered residence residents and the withdrawal of provident fund, further reducing the threshold for purchase of houses. The new policy in Guangzhou greatly exceeded market expectations. For the short-term boost to the market, it is expected that the market will perform well in the upcoming June Li Yujia, Chief Researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, believes that on the one hand, the proposal to apply for loans for three or more properties goes beyond the restrictions of the country's previous differentiated housing credit policy on "loans for three or more properties are not allowed"; On the other hand, a number of policies have activated the purchase of houses by non registered residence residents. "Social security has decreased from two years to six months, which is the lowest in first tier cities.". In addition, the criteria for identifying first homes have also been relaxed. The new mortgage policy this time clearly stipulates that purchasing a qualified third home can also apply for a loan. Industry insiders indicate that this is an adjustment made to the original policy of suspending loans for 2 or more properties in Guangzhou. "This is the first time that a first tier city has opened up loans for two or more properties." Li Yujia said that whether to grant loans for a third property is up to banks to make their own judgments. As commercial institutions, banks will inevitably develop differentiated down payment and interest rate policies based on market analysis to ensure their financial security. According to the Notice, those who buy houses in Yuexiu, Haizhu, Liwan, Tianhe, Baiyun (excluding Jianggao Town, Taihe Town, Renhe Town, Zhongluotan Town), Nansha and other districts, and those who are not registered residence residents of the city can provide proof of payment of individual income tax or social insurance in the city six months before the date of purchase, enjoy the treatment of registered residence residents to purchase houses. Last September, Guangzhou issued a notice that Panyu, Huadu, Huangpu, Baiyun (Jianggao Town, Taihe Town, Renhe Town, Zhongluotan Town), Conghua and Zengcheng were listed as non purchase restricted areas, and Yuexiu, Haizhu, Liwan, Tianhe, Baiyun (excluding Jianggao Town, Taihe Town, Renhe Town, Zhongluotan Town) and Nansha were listed as purchase restricted areas. In addition, non registered residence residents can purchase houses in the purchase restricted areas after paying personal income tax or social security for two years. After the new round of policies is proposed, it means that non residents with registered residence in Guangzhou can buy a house in the restricted purchase area as long as they have paid the tax certificate or social security for 6 months in Guangzhou. "Supporting non registered residence families, single people and non registered residence talents to buy houses is the focus of policies in the first tier cities in the near future, which is also a manifestation of the" fight for people "." Xu Chi, Chief Strategy Analyst of Zhongtai Securities, said. Meanwhile, the reporter noticed that Guangzhou has also relaxed the conditions for withdrawing provident fund. The notice clearly states that as long as the housing provident fund is fully paid for more than 6 consecutive months, the provident fund can be withdrawn to pay the down payment for the purchase of the first newly-built commercial housing. "The sales of commercial housing have declined, but employees are paying their housing provident fund normally. The water level in the provident fund pool has risen, far from the 85% warning line, providing space for increased withdrawal efforts, which is also conducive to reducing the cost of borrowing to buy a house." Li Yujia said. The new policy also proposes that if a resident family has no housing in the area where they purchased a house and meets the conditions for purchasing a house, the new housing loan can be recognized as the first home; For those who meet the conditions of "rent one buy one" and "sell one buy one" in the area where the house is purchased, the application for housing loan policy for newly purchased housing can be recognized based on the reduced number of housing units under their name. Regarding this, Ou Jiangbo, the director of the Economic Research Institute of the Guangzhou Academy of Social Sciences, stated that the policy is very strong, which means that Guangzhou will no longer be based on the number of housing units designated by administrative regions on a "city" basis. If the buyer already has a house in Tianhe, the purchase of a house in any of the other 10 districts in the city will be calculated based on the down payment for the first house and the loan interest rate. To reduce the economic pressure on property buyers, the down payment for the first set of housing in Guangzhou and Shenzhen was adjusted to a minimum of 15% and 20% respectively. "The housing loan policy is also implemented on a top scale, and the policy mix is very awesome!" a real estate practitioner told reporters. On the 28th, a new housing loan policy was introduced in Guangzhou, which clearly stated that the minimum down payment for first home loans can be up to 15%, and the minimum down payment for second home loans can be up to 25%, and the lower limit of interest rates will be lifted; At the same time, purchasing a qualified third home can also apply for a loan. The relevant person in charge of the Guangdong Branch of the People's Bank of China stated that Guangzhou is the first first tier city to achieve market-oriented mortgage interest rates. Cancelling the lower limit of interest rates for commercial personal housing loans will help further promote the reduction of housing costs for residents, and accurately and effectively support the demand for rigid and improved housing; Lowering the minimum down payment ratio is beneficial for lowering the threshold for households to purchase a house, further releasing effective housing demand, and will have a positive impact on stabilizing consumption and expanding domestic demand. The reporter learned that before the launch of the new housing loan policy, the original down payment policy for Guangzhou's housing loans was no less than 30% for the first home and no less than 40% for the second home. According to the new mortgage policy, the minimum down payment for purchasing a first home can be as low as 15%. The reporter calculated that for the purchase of a first home in Guangzhou with a total price of 3 million yuan, the down payment must be at least 900000 yuan before the launch of the new policy. After the new policy, the down payment can be as low as 450000 yuan, a decrease of 450000 yuan. In terms of interest rates, the original interest rate policy had a lower limit of LPR-10BP for the first home and LPR+30BP for the second home. The new policy clearly cancels the lower limit of interest rates, which means that the interest expenses paid by homebuyers will be reduced. The reporter learned exclusively from multiple banks that major banks in Guangzhou have reached a consensus on the recent mortgage interest rates, and will handle mortgage loans for customers at a rate of 3.4% for the first home and 3.8% for the second home. The reporter calculated that if a loan of 3 million yuan is granted, based on equal principal and interest and a loan period of 30 years, the minimum loan interest rate that can be enjoyed before the implementation of the new policy is LPR-10BP, which is 3.85%, and the monthly payment is 14064.25 yuan; After the implementation of the new policy, if calculated based on the current lower housing loan interest rate of 3.4% in the Guangdong market, the monthly payment is 13304.44 yuan, which can reduce the monthly repayment by 759.81 yuan. However, the policy clearly states that "banking and financial institutions should reasonably determine the specific down payment ratio and interest rate level for each loan based on the principles of marketization and rule of law, taking into account their own operating conditions, customer risk conditions, and other factors." The interest rate for future home purchases still needs to be negotiated and determined between banks and customers. On the same evening, the Shenzhen Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau announced a reduction in the minimum down payment ratio and interest rate for personal housing loans: the minimum down payment ratio for personal housing loans for the first home was adjusted from the original 30% to 20%, and the minimum down payment ratio for personal housing loans for second homes was adjusted from the original 40% to 30%. The lower limit of the interest rate for commercial personal housing loans for the first set of housing has been adjusted from the original LPR-10BP to LPR-45BP, and the lower limit of the interest rate for commercial personal housing loans for the second set of housing has been adjusted from the original LPR+30BP to LPR-5BP. Li Yujia analyzed that the regulatory policies introduced by Shenzhen this time are completely consistent with Shanghai in terms of the minimum down payment ratio and interest rate for first and second homes. Shanghai and Shenzhen are consistent in demonstrating their urban level in real estate regulation policies. After the introduction of regulatory policies in Shanghai, it is equivalent to setting a model for Shenzhen. He believes that under the combined effects of lowering housing prices, lowering costs, releasing demand, and lowering thresholds, market expectations will be boosted, and in the future, sales of commercial housing in Shenzhen will increase. Releasing Positive Signals for Stabilizing the Real Estate Market: New policies for the real estate market in first tier cities have been successively introduced, and it is expected that more cities will follow suit from Shanghai to Guangzhou and then to Shenzhen. Recently, new policies for the real estate market in first tier cities have been successively introduced, releasing positive policy signals. Analysis suggests that relaxing purchase restrictions is beneficial for releasing eligibility for incremental home purchases; Lowering the down payment ratio and lowering or canceling the lower limit of mortgage interest rates can help lower the cost and threshold of purchasing a house; The new policies introduced in Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other places are expected to unleash the purchasing power of real estate and significantly boost the demand for home purchases. On May 17th, heavyweight policies such as the Notice of the People's Bank of China on Adjusting the Interest Rate Policy of Commercial Personal Housing Loans, the Notice of the People's Bank of China on Lowering the Interest Rate of Personal Housing Provident Fund Loans, and the Notice of the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision on Adjusting the Minimum Down Payment Ratio Policy of Personal Housing Loans were released, launching a series of "combination punches" to "cancel the lower limit of housing loan interest rates," lower the interest rate of provident fund loans, "and" lower the down payment ratio, "aiming to maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. "This policy has optimized the recognition criteria for first-time housing loans, and alleviated the economic pressure on homebuyers by reducing the down payment ratio, adjusting the lower limit of mortgage interest rates, and adjusting the amount of provident fund loans. Especially for first-time and improved housing buyers, it helps to encourage residents to buy houses, inject new vitality into the real estate market, and also help drive the growth of bank housing mortgage loans." The Chief Economist of CITIC Securities clearly believes that. It is worth mentioning that since May 17th, many cities in Guangdong, Shanghai, Guangxi, Hebei, Shanxi, Hainan, Yunnan, and Chongqing have quickly responded by lowering the down payment ratio, and multiple core cities have lowered or cancelled the lower limit of mortgage interest rates. Analysis suggests that more cities are expected to follow suit and relax in the future, and the expectation of a recovery in real estate fundamentals is expected to gradually be realized. At the same time, many regions have launched boosting measures, such as Chongqing's release of six major measures including subsidies for families with multiple children to purchase houses, Chengdu's relaxation of household registration conditions, Shenzhen's introduction of free supervision of cross bank "collateral transfer" funds for second-hand houses, Lin'an District in Hangzhou's planned acquisition of commercial housing as affordable housing, and Foshan's launch of the "old for new" activity. Du Haomin, a real estate analyst at Guojin Securities, believes that the recent series of policies fully reflect the determination and strength of the central government to support the stabilization of the real estate market. At the same time, follow-up policies and heavyweight adjustments are still promising, and it is expected to continuously improve market expectations for the real estate market, boosting confidence in all aspects. Qi Dong, an analyst at Open Source Securities, predicts that in the future, real estate policies will continue to be relaxed, and there is still room for the release of housing demand. Super large cities are actively and steadily promoting the transformation of urban villages, and more countercyclical adjustment measures are expected to accelerate their implementation. Regarding the follow-up policies, Li Yujia noticed that Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have not introduced any policies on taxes and fees. "In the future, we should also cooperate to reduce or exempt deed tax, personal income tax, value-added tax, etc." At the same time, the state-owned enterprise's final house collection, which was previously deployed, has not yet been implemented. It is recommended to accelerate inventory reduction, stabilize price expectations, and give market confidence as soon as possible. Li Yujia also suggested that the next step should continue to start from the perspective of housing security, promote supply side structural reform, and shift the demand for primary and low-income groups mainly towards affordable housing and second-hand housing, while the new housing market gradually shifts towards improving demand. (Lai Xin She)