After the bankruptcy of the Silicon Valley Bank, the Credit Suisse incident continued to ferment, the risk events of European and American banks dragged down the performance of the global stock market, and the Hong Kong stock market continued to dip. On the morning of March 16th, the Hang Seng Index once fell to 19109 points, closing at 19245.59 points at noon, and falling 1.51% in the morning, resulting in a transaction of HK $61.6 billion. Investors worried about the losses caused by asset impairment, led by financial stocks, including AIA (01299. HK) down 5.22% and Standard Chartered Group (02888. HK) down 4.79%. Credit Suisse admitted that there were "major defects" in its financial reporting procedures in 2022 and 2021, while its largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank, said that it would not increase its investment in Credit Suisse due to local regulations; The Swiss Central Bank said that it would provide liquidity to Credit Suisse if necessary, and the European and American stock markets fluctuated sharply overnight. Since the end of January, the cumulative decline of the Hang Seng Index has been close to 3600 points. In the view of industry insiders, in the short term, Hong Kong shares should continue to digest the negative events of overseas banking industry and continue to dip, but gradually enter the stage of falling out of layout opportunities. First Shanghai Securities analyst Ye Shangzhi said that the Hang Seng Index is still in the stage of bottom-seeking and bottom-seeking, and I believe there is still room for bottom-seeking. Just as the darkness before dawn is the darkest, the market situation will be more severe and the volatility of stock prices will be the largest as the end of bottom-seeking approaches. Therefore, it is suggested that we should remain vigilant in operation, but we can use the short-term volatility of the market to find a relatively good intervention point and gradually absorb high-quality strong stocks at a low price. Taking the Hang Seng Index as a reference, if it falls further below 18700 in the short term, you can pay more attention. Guo Sizhi, an independent stock commentator, believes that the last round of rebound in Hong Kong shares rose more than 8100 points, and the next round of adjustment may continue, and the bottom may continue in the next week. However, even if it falls below 19000 in the future, it is not a big problem. The current banking crisis in Europe and the United States is not the case in 2008. Next, we need to wait for the gradual recovery of market confidence. Bank of Communications International said that considering the huge withdrawal of the bond market, the huge "unrealized losses" are not unique to one company, and are likely to spread to international banks, insurance, public funds, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and even the Federal Reserve. At present, it is likely that the Federal Reserve will not immediately turn to not raise interest rates, but will maintain a slow rate increase of 25 basis points. In the future, it will gradually turn to "risk prevention". In the future, if inflation and employment do not continue to exceed expectations, or the crisis in the banking system further spreads and escalates significantly, the Federal Reserve is likely to increase structural tools to maintain stable inter-bank liquidity, and may stop raising interest rates or even carry out phased interest rate cuts. Hu Yu, Chief Economist of Xinding Fund, analyzed to First Financial News that Hong Kong stocks are greatly affected by European and American markets. Considering the pressure on European and American financial institutions and the impact of the high interest rate environment, the urgency of the Federal Reserve to terminate interest rate hikes is increasingly evident. Once the United States changes its monetary policy direction, emerging markets such as Hong Kong stocks will become the biggest beneficiaries, among which the domestic housing stocks with the largest elasticity of the dollar debt risk last year. (Xinhua News Agency)