In order to hedge the impact of factors such as the peak of the tax period and the payment for the issuance of government bonds and maintain stable liquidity at the end of the month, on October 27, the people's Bank of China announced that the reverse repurchase operation of RMB 200 billion was carried out by means of interest rate bidding on that day, with a period of 7 days and a bid winning interest rate of 2.2%, which was consistent with the previous period. The restart of 100 billion yuan reverse repurchase began on October 20. Affected by the large demand for funds during the holidays, the central bank conducted a 100 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation before the National Day holiday, and also adopted the "7 + 14" day reverse repurchase combination. As the funds invested before the festival gradually expired, from October to 19, the central bank's reverse repurchase operation returned to the level of 10 billion yuan invested on a small scale, and the market funds continued to return net. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher of the financial market department of Everbright Bank, interpreted the restart of 100 billion yuan reverse repurchase by the central bank as "volume increase and price stability". In terms of "volume increase", the central bank moderately increased the net investment in reverse repurchase operations. On the one hand, it was a short-term disturbance factor in hedging funds; The other is to release the policy intention that the central bank will maintain reasonable and abundant market liquidity to the market. In terms of "price stability", the central bank kept the quoted interest rate (LPR) of the loan market stable, which was in line with market expectations. On the one hand, the central bank's policy interest rate remained stable this month; On the other hand, it reflects that the overall supply and demand of domestic credit market remains reasonable and moderate. In the fourth quarter, the maturity of open market operating instruments was large, the issuance of special bonds and seasonality and other disturbing factors increased, causing the market to worry about the tightening of capital. In this regard, Zhou Maohua believes that the central bank has many tools to deal with the disturbance of short-term funds, and has repeatedly stated that the prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and the market liquidity should be reasonable and abundant. On October 20, the central bank increased the amount of open market operation, which also eased the market sentiment to a certain extent. "In the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of liquidity in the banking system will continue to maintain a basic balance without major fluctuations." at the recent press conference on financial statistics in the third quarter held by the central bank, sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the central bank, said that for the phased influencing factors such as government bond issuance, tax payment and the maturity of medium-term lending facilities, The people's Bank of China will comprehensively consider the liquidity situation and the needs of financial institutions, flexibly use a variety of monetary policy tools such as medium-term lending facilities and open market operation, timely and appropriately invest liquidity with different maturities, iron out short-term fluctuations, meet the reasonable capital needs of financial institutions and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. At the same time, the implementation of structural monetary policy tools will also play a certain role in increasing the total liquidity. Sun Guofeng also said that in recent years, the people's Bank of China has improved the regulatory framework for liquidity and market interest rates, improved operational transparency, stabilized market expectations through consistent monetary policy operation and expectation management, and effectively reduced the preventive liquidity demand of financial institutions, The total liquidity and excess reserve ratio required to maintain the stable operation of money market interest rates continued to decline. Subsequently, the people's Bank of China will continue to pay close attention to various factors affecting liquidity supply and demand, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, guide the stable operation of money market interest rates around the central bank's open market operating interest rates, and provide a good liquidity environment for high-quality economic development. Previously, there was a view that the current low excess reserve rate showed a large gap in domestic basic money supply. In this regard, Zhou Maohua believes that under the condition of low excess reserve rate, liquidity and capital interest rate are relatively stable, which shows that the transmission of monetary policy is smooth, and banks do not have much "surplus money" sleeping on the central bank account. When asked whether there was room for RRR reduction in the fourth quarter, sun Guofeng said that from the perspective of the whole fourth quarter, the situation of liquidity supply and demand should be basically balanced. The people's Bank of China will comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity and maintain the stable operation of money market interest rates. Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst of Everbright Securities, believes that in fact, the RRR reduction, like reverse repurchase and medium-term lending facility (MLF), is a tool for the central bank to regulate the liquidity of the banking system. Its purpose is to guide the market interest rate to fluctuate around the policy interest rate, which is not fundamentally different. The original intention of the RRR reduction in July was to enhance the capital allocation capacity of financial institutions, increase support for small and micro enterprises and reduce the comprehensive social financing cost. For the liquidity of the banking system, dr007 has been operating with the 7-day reverse repo interest rate as the center after the RRR reduction in July. Therefore, the RRR reduction in July is neutral and does not represent the change of monetary policy orientation, but the routine operation after the monetary policy returns to normal. Zhou Maohua said that the recently announced growth rates of M2 and social finance basically match the growth rate of domestic nominal GDP, indicating that the domestic monetary and credit environment continues to provide strong support for economic recovery. However, we should pay attention to the impact of global industrial chain disorder, supply bottleneck and commodity prices on domestic enterprises in some industries, which complicates the difficulties in domestic economic recovery and suppresses some credit demand. It needs multi sectoral coordinated response to bail out enterprises and stimulate the vitality of micro market players. (outlook new era)