The prospects for global economic recovery are bleak, and China's "engine" role is highly anticipated

2023-04-13

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook report on the 11th, lowering its forecast for world economic growth, believing that the current world economic growth is facing great uncertainty. Meanwhile, the IMF predicts that China's economic growth rate will be 5.2% in 2023. International observers believe that as the challenges to the world economy intensify, the strong growth of China's economy is a significant benefit for the world and will become a key engine of global economic growth. The challenge intensifies: The banking crisis in the United States and Europe is dragging down the world economy. The IMF report believes that the current world economic growth is facing great uncertainty. In addition to high inflation, the ongoing impact of the Ukrainian crisis, and the pandemic, the turmoil in the financial sector has brought new challenges. The risk of a hard landing in developed economies has intensified, with about 90% of the developed economies' growth rate slowing down. The report predicts that the world economic growth rate will decrease from 3.4% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023, a 0.1 percentage point decrease from previous predictions. Among them, the slowdown in growth in developed economies is particularly evident, expected to decrease from 2.7% in 2022 to 1.3% in 2023. The economies of emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow by 3.9% this year. The institution pointed out that many central banks have significantly raised interest rates to curb inflation, exacerbating pressure in the financial sector, and a tightening global financial environment will also hinder recovery. How to maintain growth and financial stability while reducing inflation has become a challenge for policy makers in various economies. Pierre Olivier Gulansha, Economic Advisor and Research Director of the IMF, stated at a press conference that the recent banking turmoil has shown that the situation remains fragile, with downward risks once again dominating. He pointed out that inflation is more stubborn than expected, and it is worrying that the side effects of the central bank's significant tightening of monetary policy over the past year on the financial sector have begun to emerge. Last month, the US Silicon Valley Bank and signature banks were closed one after another, and Credit Suisse Bank was acquired by UBS Group. These events raised concerns about the stability of the financial market. The IMF pointed out that the banking crisis in the United States and Europe indicates that the unexpected fragility of the banking system in the United States and other regions may lead to financial sector instability and potentially have a significant impact on the world economy. On the 11th, Daniel Li, the head of world economics at the IMF's research department, stated that although the banking crisis did not truly affect the institution's baseline predictions, "downside risks are now more prominent. In terms of inflation, the IMF's latest forecast is that as energy prices decline, the overall global inflation rate will drop from 8.7% in 2022 to 7% this year. But excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation is expected to take longer to decline. For most countries, price increases will remain above the central bank's target level until 2025. The IMF also warns that in the medium term, the world economy may find it difficult to recover from its pre pandemic growth rate. It is expected that the world economic growth rate will remain around 3% in the next five years, far below the average level of 3.8% in the past 20 years. Rare highlight: China is a key engine of global growth, and in the face of bleak global economic prospects, the Chinese economy has become a rare highlight. Gulansha stated that China has optimized and adjusted its epidemic prevention policies to help the Chinese economy rebound strongly

Edit:He Chuanning    Responsible editor:Su Suiyue

Source:Xinhua

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