Uncertainties remain and green transformation is not easy -- Outlook on the world energy situation in 2023

2023-01-11

In 2023, the uncertainty of global energy security will still exist under the influence of various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, climate change and exchange rate fluctuations. This energy crisis has continued since last year, causing fuel shortages, enterprise closures and economic slowdown in some countries, which not only forces relevant countries to adjust energy policies, but also may cause profound changes in the international energy pattern. The energy crisis triggered a chain reaction. Since last year, the contradiction between global energy supply and demand has deteriorated sharply, the international energy price has fluctuated frequently, and the market is full of uncertainty. "This is the first truly global energy crisis, with unprecedented impact breadth and complexity," said the opening of the World Energy Outlook 2022 released by the International Energy Agency. As an important energy producer and exporter, Russia plays an important role in the global energy market. After the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, the United States and the West launched severe sanctions against Russia, resulting in a chain reaction of energy supply obstruction, soaring prices and high inflation. According to the statistical data released recently by the European think-tank Bruegel Institute, the wholesale price of electricity and natural gas in Europe has increased by 15 times compared with 2021. If the government subsidies alone do not take other measures to deal with it, the cost of European state subsidies may reach 1 trillion euros before the energy price falls. This crisis highlights the fragility of the international energy supply structure. Taking natural gas as an example, due to the sharp decrease in natural gas from Russia, the proportion of liquefied natural gas imported from Europe has increased significantly. However, European countries that are used to importing natural gas through pipelines do not have enough LNG storage facilities. Data shows that before the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, 30% of the EU's oil, 45% of its natural gas and 46% of its coal came from Russia. The EU wants to change this energy supply structure, which will not be achieved in the short term. The soaring energy price not only troubled Europe, but also triggered a chain reaction around the world. With the soaring price of liquefied natural gas, Japan and South Korea and other economies are trying to save electricity while considering restarting nuclear power; India's coal imports once reached a record high; Many emerging and underdeveloped economies that rely on imports of energy have to compete with developed economies for energy at high prices. This situation has also triggered a fierce restructuring of the global energy market, with the profits of American energy exporters soaring, and regions with high natural gas reserves such as North Africa are also trying to increase exports. The European energy crisis and its chain reaction have exacerbated the volatility of global commodity prices, the inflation rate of many countries has soared, and the economic difficulties of some countries have further deepened. Unless the geopolitical factors and the global supply and demand relationship change fundamentally, the energy price will remain high for a period of time in the future, and the tense situation of energy supply will continue. The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said previously that the European Union may face a natural gas gap of about 27 billion cubic meters in 2023, accounting for about 6.8% of the EU's benchmark total demand for natural gas. The International Energy Agency predicts that the global crude oil market may also have a significant shortage in the third quarter of 2023, driving the price of Brent crude oil futures in London to around US $100 per barrel. The World Bank recently released the forecast of "Commodity Market Outlook"

Edit:He Chuanning    Responsible editor:Su Suiyue

Source:Xinhua

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