How to Satisfy 8 Billion People -- The Future of World Food Security in 2023

2023-01-09

In 2023, under the influence of climate change, geopolitical crisis, slowing global economic growth and other factors, the international food market will still have greater uncertainty, and some low-income countries may continue to face the dilemma of food shortage. The international community can better address the challenges of global food security only by strengthening coordination, clearing up the blockages and breakpoints in the supply chain of the food industry chain in a timely manner, and striving to eliminate long-term structural problems that undermine the resilience of the global food system. The food security threat still exists. Analysts believe that the food security crisis in 2023 is still difficult to completely resolve, mainly because the factors that led to the crisis before still exist. According to the data of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), as many as 828 million people in the world will face hunger in 2021. Hungry people are mainly distributed in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. In 2022, about 205 million people in 45 countries and regions will be in the "crisis" level or more serious food insecurity, and the number of people will increase significantly compared with the previous year. FAO recently pointed out in a report that the food import expenditure of low-income countries in 2022 was almost the same as expected, but the import volume may decrease by 10%, indicating that the situation of food access in these countries is becoming increasingly severe. A variety of factors triggered the food crisis, including the continued spread of the COVID-19 epidemic and bottlenecks in the supply chain. In response to the economic downturn after the outbreak of the epidemic, western developed economies launched quantitative easing policies, which caused food prices to rise significantly. Russia and Ukraine are both important grain exporters, and Russia is also an important fertilizer exporter. After the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine in February 2022, international food prices will rise and the food crisis will intensify. According to the data of the World Food Programme, before the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, Russia Ukraine wheat exports accounted for about 30% of the global wheat trade. In March 2022, the FAO food price index rose to 159.7, the highest since its establishment in 1990. Western countries have set up "hidden barriers" to the export of Russian agricultural products, causing Russian exporters to be "choked" in many aspects. Analysts also pointed out that the United States encouraged its allies to repeatedly increase sanctions against Russia, affecting international energy and fertilizer supply, leading to soaring agricultural input costs, which may affect agricultural production in the next global planting season and stimulate the continued rise in food prices. The dry and hot climate in the Northern Hemisphere in 2022 will affect the winter wheat yield in several major production areas, and the global corn yield is also expected to be lower than the level of the previous year. The tight supply in the international market means that the price of wheat and corn will continue to fluctuate in 2023, and will be highly sensitive to climate conditions and related policy changes. In addition, some major economies are showing signs of economic recession or obvious slowdown, and the global economic downturn also brings risks to food security. Food distribution needs to be balanced. It should be noted that there is no obvious shortage of total global food supply. The main reason for the current food security problem is the imbalance of global food distribution, and there is a huge gap between food resources in different countries and regions. FAO predicted in December last year that the global grain output in 2022 would be 2756 million tons. Experts believe that although the global population reached 8 billion last year

Edit:He Chuanning    Responsible editor:Su Suiyue

Source:Xinhua

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