Global economic uncertainty continues to increase

2023-01-06

In 2023, the global economy will continue the slowdown trend of 2022, showing a mild recession; The global inflation rate is expected to decline, but it will still be higher than the level before the international financial crisis; Influenced by the decline in global economic growth and geopolitical conflicts, the prospect of world trade is also difficult to be optimistic. On the whole, the global economy is still facing considerable challenges this year, but the process of adjustment also breeds the impetus for recovery. Countries need to strengthen economic coordination through multilateral cooperation to promote global economic recovery. After experiencing a significant decline in global economic growth in 2022, the global economic recovery in 2023 will face greater pressure. A series of external shocks, such as geopolitical conflicts, the uncertainty of epidemic situation, and the spillover effect of the radical withdrawal of economic stimulus policies of the United States and other major economies, are still difficult to eliminate in the short term, and the global economy continues to be in a period of instability and volatility. At the same time, in 2023, the macro policies of major economies in the world to promote growth, the restoration of global industrial chains, the development of new economic models such as digital economy, and the promotion of global international cooperation will create momentum for the world economy to gradually return to the track of low growth. The global economy will show a mild recession. In 2023, the global economy will continue the slowdown trend of 2022, showing a mild recession. In the first half of the year, the global economy will still show a fluctuating trend, and it is expected to improve in the second half of the year. According to the calculation of the World Economic and Political Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the world economic growth rate will be about 2.5% in 2023. After 2024, the global economy is expected to return to the track of low growth. As far as major economies in the world are concerned, the risk of a substantial recession in the US economy has increased. The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hike and other tightening monetary policies have a delayed effect on economic growth. However, the downward pressure on demand in the U.S. labor market has increased, and the consumption stamina is insufficient. It is difficult for the U.S. economy to achieve a "soft landing", which may lead to a recession in the first half of 2023. There will be an economic recession in Europe. The continuous impact of the energy crisis, the decline of external demand, and the tight monetary policy will make the European economy likely to stagnate in 2023. The Asian economy has generally shown a trend of recovery, and China's economy has achieved restorative growth. After the adjustment of the epidemic prevention policy, the pulling effect of consumer demand on economic growth has increased, but factors such as the downturn of the real estate industry, the aging population, and insufficient external demand have had an impact on China's economic growth. Japan's economy has recovered slowly, but the internal factors such as the aging population make it difficult to significantly increase the growth rate of Japan's economy, while external factors such as the trend of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the global economic downturn still put downward pressure on Japan's economy. India's economy continues to maintain a high growth rate. The energy transformation, offshore outsourcing, and expansion of manufacturing investment have kept India's economic growth at a high level, with an expected growth rate of 6.3% in 2023. The recovery of the Asian economy has provided support to a certain extent for stabilizing the global supply chain, increasing external demand for other economies and reducing global inflation. The global inflation rate is expected to decline, but it will still be higher than the low inflation rate before the international financial crisis. In 2022, to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve

Edit:wangwenting    Responsible editor:xiaomai

Source:china.cn

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