"Hydrogenation for 3 minutes, endurance of 850km". A car blogger said in a video introducing Toyota's new hydrogen car Mirai, "it's really much better than electric cars in terms of endurance anxiety." Another microblogging car blogger commented, "it can discharge 'drinking water', which is much faster than electric vehicles." In fact, in addition to Toyota, many car companies have a try on the path of hydrogen energy vehicles. On April 21, Chang'an released the first mass-produced hydrogen passenger car c385. Previously, GAC, SAIC, BAIC and other enterprises have also made layout one after another. After the electric car, the hydrogen car made a high-profile appearance. "In the era of high oil prices, new energy is the king", some netizens lamented. Lithium trams are in the ascendant. Is the era of hydrogen powered cars really coming? "There are three 52.2l gas tanks with a total of 156.6l, with a single hydrogenation of 6.3kg, 58 yuan per kilogram and 365.4 yuan per five minutes. The cost is equivalent to a 6.7L gasoline vehicle per 100 kilometers." "Such a car will not have a market until ten years later." ...... Car companies are very enthusiastic, but there are still many problems to be solved on the consumer side. Electric vehicles that have been popular for several years are still worried about the number of charging piles. Of course, hydrogen passenger cars also have problems such as hydrogen refueling stations, high price of hydrogen energy and high cost. The vision of "one person for one" passenger car market is still far away. In contrast, the higher certainty is the development of the commercial vehicle market. The current hydrogen energy market is still in dispute, but we can't look at the future from today's perspective. "Hydrogen energy will have an important place in the future energy structure." Guo Gang, general manager of green gold investment of Shaanxi investment capital, expressed his views on the "special session of carbon neutralization and hydrogen energy" of the cutting-edge science and Technology Salon held by light cone intelligence, which represents the position of a large number of investors and practitioners. More and more deterministic signals indicate that the future of hydrogen energy is gradually coming. In 2020, yihuatong, a hydrogen fuel cell engine manufacturer, successfully IPO on the science and innovation board and obtained a market value of nearly 20 billion. In 2021, reshaping technology also submitted an IPO, in which Sinopec held a heavy position. In the same year, jiehydrogen technology, a hydrogen energy company spun off by SAIC, also launched an IPO. According to the Research Report of Everbright Securities, it is estimated that the scale of China's hydrogen energy supply market will reach 1.3 trillion yuan by 2050. In terms of commercial value, the potential of hydrogen energy is imminent. At the technical level, various technical links of the hydrogen energy industry chain have also been relatively mature. The main breakthrough lies in the landing of industrial applications such as hydrogen energy commercial vehicles and hydrogen energy storage, and specific application problems need to be further solved. Will today's hydrogen energy be the lithium battery ten years ago? "Another" fire in hydrogen energy industry In 2020, China announced the "double carbon goal": peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. In the industry report carbon neutralization: a new revolution in energy technology jointly released by lightcone intelligence and scale partners, it is mentioned that in order to achieve this goal, China chooses a "double carbon path" dominated by reducing carbon emissions and supplemented by increasing carbon absorption. So far, the era of clean energy has opened. Among the new energy types such as wind energy, solar energy, nuclear energy, water energy and hydrogen energy, hydrogen, the "leader" of the periodic table of chemical elements, has the remarkable characteristics of high cleanliness, long industrial chain, many application scenarios and large development space. "From the perspective of energy structure, traditional energy has the need to reduce carbon. The process of reducing carbon from other energy sources to new energy sources is basically presented with electric energy as the energy carrier, but there are many energy demand scenarios that can not be solved by electric energy. In this environment, hydrogen energy, as an important carrier of secondary energy, plays an irreplaceable role." Guo Gang, general manager of Shaanxi lvjin investment, analyzed why hydrogen energy has an important place from the perspective of energy structure. For the potential of hydrogen energy, Xu Zhen, assistant chairman of Edelman, explained more concretely, "industry, chemical industry, manufacturing and transportation are all major carbon emitters. In these fields, hydrogen energy can replace the existing energy. At the same time, hydrogen energy can also cooperate with wind power and photoelectric renewable energy to carry out large-scale energy storage to adjust the power mechanism." She believes that hydrogen energy is a means to realize double carbon, and plays a role of supplement and support to other renewable energy in this process. With the blessing of scene ductility and coupling with electricity, hydrogen energy has become a pastry in the commercial market. CCTV reported that the data show that at present, the number of hydrogen energy related enterprises in China has exceeded 2000, and the number of new enterprise registrations is still growing rapidly. According to the prediction of China hydrogen energy alliance, by 2025, the output value of China's hydrogen energy industry will reach 1 trillion yuan. By 2050, the demand for hydrogen will be close to 60 million tons, and about 700 million tons of carbon dioxide will be reduced. Hydrogen energy accounts for more than 10% in China's terminal energy system, and the annual output value of the industrial chain will reach 12 trillion yuan. On March 23, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the medium and long-term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (2021-2035), the first medium and long-term planning of China's hydrogen energy industry, to promote the development of hydrogen energy industry from top-level design. With the policy support, this market potential will have the opportunity to further blowout. In fact, the hydrogen industry is not a new thing. According to Zang Ningning, deputy director of Yingda Securities Research Institute, its development has experienced several climaxes in recent decades. Driven by factors such as oil crisis, global warming and technological progress, the hydrogen energy industry has experienced phased development climax in the 1970s and 1990s respectively. So why is the hydrogen industry hot again? Will this upsurge be a "flash in the pan" or a "moment of qualitative change" in the hydrogen energy industry? The breakthrough of commercialization "siege" "The promotion of application scenarios is a necessary condition for the advancement of the whole industrial chain of hydrogen energy." Guo Gang put forward a key point - only technologies and concepts that can be implemented are not "castles in the air". For the commercialization of hydrogen energy, we need to find a breakthrough first. Hu Su, the capital investment director of CSC, who has many years of investment experience in the new energy industry, said, "at present, most institutional investors are looking more at the application of transportation, especially cars. With the implementation of the policy of demonstration urban agglomeration, we also hope that through the drive of cars, the industrial chains such as technology and materials will mature rapidly and can expand to ships, aircraft and other fields." Take Beijing as an example. According to statistics, during the Beijing Winter Olympic Games, nearly 2000 hydrogen fuel cell connecting vehicles were put into operation in the three competition areas of Beijing, Yanqing and Zhangjiakou, with a total operating mileage of more than 3.2 million kilometers and a carbon reduction of more than 2600 tons. Why is the transportation department listed as the first sample case? According to the calculation of IEA, China's transportation sector accounts for 8% of the total carbon dioxide emissions of China's energy system in 2020. At present, about 95% of the terminal energy demand of China's transportation sector is still met by petroleum products and natural gas. However, compared with traditional energy vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 70 kg per 100 km. In order to achieve a large proportion of energy conservation and emission reduction targets, the transportation sector urgently needs a clean "new power". Xu Zhen is also optimistic about the trend and cycle of the whole industry in the light of the just need: "2025 is the first stage of national demonstration application, and the domestic expectation is mainly the application in the field of transportation, especially commercial vehicles. In fact, this can calculate the market scale of 10 billion. In the process, in addition to government guidance, the positive response of the whole marketization will promote the further development of the scale, and the actual scale is much larger than the estimate." In the field of commercial vehicles, heavy trucks bear the brunt of the need for a "green revolution". Gan Yong, academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering, once said that replacing diesel models such as diesel heavy trucks is a top priority for the application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, because the nitrogen oxide emissions of diesel vehicles account for nearly 70% of the total vehicle emissions. Image source: Internet At present, Tianjin port, Zhangjiagang, Jiaxing City, Inner Mongolia city, Beijing and other regions have determined the pilot of hydrogen fuel cell heavy truck. According to the analysis of CITIC Securities, under the background of "carbon peak and carbon neutralization", new energy heavy trucks (power exchange and fuel cell) are expected to gradually penetrate from specific scenarios such as large enterprises, ports and parks, and the sales of hydrogen energy heavy trucks are expected to reach 3500 in 2022. Like lithium new energy vehicles, government guidance and support are a key force to promote the operation of the flywheel. However, for the application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, whether it can develop in the long term still needs to run out of a suitable economic model. "Subsidies are always a driving force, and it can never become a main force." Guo Gang believes that whether the subsidy effect can be seamlessly connected with the maturity of the industry, and even the maturity of the industry is ahead of the subsidy, which needs attention. So, can the economic model of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle run and how? Wang shunran, chairman of Weiner Co., Ltd., calculated "an account". "Now the key factor restricting the development of hydrogen energy is the energy price, but the vehicle price has little impact." Wang shunran calculated a case: a 49 ton heavy truck costs 20 yuan a kilogram of hydrogen, and the price is about more than 1 million yuan. The annual revenue of this car is about 1 million yuan, and the gross profit of a single car is about 50000 or 60000 yuan. If the unit price of hydrogen rises to 40 yuan, this economic model is obviously not ideal and needs some subsidies. However, according to Wang shunran, several provinces in China have controlled the hydrogenation unit price within 20 yuan. "Such an economic model can be achieved. Once the economic model is formed, the development speed of the industry will exceed everyone's imagination." At the level of specific project implementation, hydrogen energy vehicles will also face problems similar to electric vehicles: is there enough hydrogen refueling station? Therefore, considering the early cost control, Wang shunran said that we can choose some places with relatively concentrated logistics density as far as possible, such as industrial products logistics. "For example, in the coal short lead market in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi, the radius of the Ministry of transport is no more than 100 kilometers, but it has to run many times every day. A three or four ton hydrogen refueling station can basically meet the needs of all vehicles in the whole region." "The port is also a place with relatively dense logistics, or a short guide in a small-scale large logistics park, and the medium may be a forklift. This scenario is very practical because the supply network is relatively easy to build," Wang shunran said The hydrogenation station determines how far the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle can do and how deep the industry penetration is. In this regard, Wang shunran believes that the layout idea should be: from points and lines, and finally form a network. Challenges of industrial chain According to the data, the cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks in 2021 was about 10400, a year-on-year increase of 3 times. Among them, the annual sales volume of fuel cell heavy trucks was 779, with a year-on-year increase of 42.28 times, and its share in new energy heavy trucks increased from 0.7% in early 2020 to 7.46%. The growth of fuel cell heavy trucks has opened up the grand plan of commercialization of hydrogen energy applications, but there are still many obstacles to the development of relatively immature industries. "Everyone is talking about cost reduction, but if the key parts and materials still depend on imports, the pressure will be great; in addition, how to achieve large-scale in the subdivided fields is also a problem to be solved; finally, the fine cost optimization of the hydrogenation station." Gao Haiyu, deputy general manager of German fuel power, put forward his own opinions on the current industrial chain challenges of hydrogen fuel cells. "Special session of carbon neutralization and hydrogen energy" of cutting-edge technology Salon of light cone intelligence "From the perspective of technical route, foreign BOP technology has reached the second and third generation. At present, it is still in the stage of 1.0 in China, but in China