Us think tanks exaggerate "military threat" European countries "hold together" to prepare for war ■ Zhang Wansheng, Liang Xudong Us amphibious command ship "Mount Whitney" Recently, Rand Corporation, an American think tank, released a research report, which made a high-profile exaggeration that Europe is facing a security threat. Recently, some European NATO countries have also continued to strengthen the construction of independent defense capacity with the gimmick of tight regional security situation. In the future, with the help of the United States, European countries may further strengthen their military deterrence and strategic pressure on Russia. Think tanks sing "threat theory" The Research Report on European high-end military challenges: future military capabilities and missions by Rand Corporation, an American think tank, points out that European countries are currently facing great security threats, and there is an urgent need to increase military construction investment in the future. Strategic threats. The report believes that the European army faces challenges in key areas of concern, and the European Navy and air force lack sufficient air transportation and air refueling capabilities, making it difficult to maintain the operational level. In addition to the limited military strength in Europe, although Britain, France and other NATO countries have major economic and security interests in the Asia Pacific region, their military projection in the region is limited. The report points out that in view of the small scale of European forces (such as the Royal Navy) in the Asia Pacific region, it is difficult to maintain a military presence in the region. Capacity status. According to the report, European troops, such as Britain and France, can carry out many types of tasks in low-end conflicts without U.S. military assistance, such as withdrawal of non combatants, peacekeeping operations and humanitarian assistance. However, European countries lack sufficient heavy mobile forces, and their support capabilities such as air transportation, maritime transportation, missile defense, logistics and fire support are insufficient. With the improvement of conventional and unconventional combat capabilities of large countries such as Russia, Europe will face more challenges in large-scale combat with its main competitors. Future development. The report suggests that, on the one hand, European NATO countries should continue to strengthen the ability of Member States to perform specific tasks by summarizing the experience and lessons of past combat operations and conducting future combat scenario simulation; On the other hand, set more targets for military capacity-building in emerging fields to further improve the multi domain integrated combat capability. In addition, European NATO countries should adjust the current procurement standards, make rational use of NATO common funds, and strengthen the configuration of advanced weapons platforms in the Baltic Sea, Black Sea and other regions. Europe stepped up "war preparation" While U.S. think tanks are singing down European military strength, European NATO countries have recently stepped up their training of practical combat capabilities. First, accelerate the pace of building an independent army. On November 10 local time, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security Borrell said that he had drafted a "strategic guide" on the EU's joint military action and the establishment of a crisis response force, and the relevant documents had been submitted to the 27 EU Member States for consideration. The key point of the "strategic guide" is to establish a 5000 member EU crisis response force on the premise that NATO continues to provide security for Europe, deploy it at the EU border when necessary, or undertake personnel transfer and evacuation tasks. "The threats facing the EU are constantly strengthening, and the ability of individual EU Member States to deal with these threats is obviously insufficient," Borelli said Second, accelerate the construction of cutting-edge bases. According to US media reports, NATO hopes to establish naval bases in Romania and Bulgaria in order to strengthen the military construction in the black sea direction. The US Navy's "Porter" missile destroyer and the "Whitney mountain" amphibious command ship also entered the Black Sea recently to repeatedly test Russia. The Russian Black Sea Fleet then dispatched warships to track and monitor the US warships. On November 8, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made it clear that NATO's plan to establish a new naval base along the Black Sea coast of Romania or Bulgaria was not in line with the interests of good neighborliness and friendship in the Black Sea region and "violated the commitments of the Russian NATO basic documents announced by NATO in the 1990s". The document shows that NATO is committed not to build new military infrastructure in the East and new members. Third, accelerate the process of promoting war through training. Recently, the U.S. European Command led the organization of NATO countries to carry out large-scale training activities in the Black Sea. On November 13 alone, the Russian air force and the Black Sea Fleet discovered and monitored the activities of four NATO reconnaissance aircraft in the Black Sea area. Several warships of the Russian Black Sea fleet, including the missile cruiser "Moscow", also closely monitored the US warships in the Black Sea. NATO said that the training activities are aimed at strengthening the integrated combat capability among NATO member states. Russian President Vladimir Putin accused NATO of using a large number of actual weapons in the Black Sea military exercise, which is a major challenge to Russia's national security. Security ushers in a "new inflection point" On the whole, both the "failure" of American think tanks on the overall combat effectiveness of Europe and the "rapid march" of NATO countries in military construction highlight the strategic anxiety of European countries towards Russia and show their urgency to rely on the United States to control Russia and their willingness to "hold together for warmth". In the future, under the continuous disturbance of the United States, the European region may face a more complex security situation. On the one hand, it is difficult to implement the "next article" of becoming an independent army. French President macron said recently that Europe needs to build its own military capacity on the issue of defending its own interests. On the whole, although European countries have taken the first step in independent military formation, many practical problems such as command and control, mission objectives, operational strategy, force allocation and logistics support of European troops need to be solved. In addition, judging from the current scale and future development trend, the European army is more like a "reserve team". On the other hand, it is necessary to control Russia by force. Under the background that the diplomatic war triggered the "de facto severance of diplomatic relations" between Russia and NATO, the military game led to the tension between Russia and its European neighbors, and the refugee tide triggered a new European security crisis, any provocative behavior of NATO led by the United States may become the "last straw" to crush Russia Europe relations. According to the Russian satellite network reported on November 12, Poland is currently assembling heavy troops on its border with Belarus. Viktor helenin, defense minister of Belarus, said: "it gives the impression that Poland wants to provoke conflict and involve the EU." next, if NATO does not exercise restraint in military demonstration, Russia may join its allies in issuing a "real roar" to relevant European countries militarily, The security situation in Europe may therefore face more uncertainties. (outlook new era)