China

Domestic demand on the track of recovery, policy cohesion, multiple ways to tap potential

2023-04-17   

Since the beginning of this year, with the macroeconomic stabilization and recovery, multiple data releases the warmth of accelerating the recovery of domestic demand. From ministries to local governments, expanding domestic demand is also a top priority, with intensive deployment and implementation of a package of measures to expand effective investment and boost consumption. Has the current domestic demand been effectively restored? How to analyze the next situation? Several experts interviewed by Economic Reference Daily believe that overall, domestic demand has entered the recovery track and the pressure of demand contraction has been alleviated. Currently, boosting confidence is still crucial. We need to increase policy efforts to expand domestic demand and further stimulate the potential of the domestic market. Multiple data releases warm domestic demand on the track of recovery, with surging crowds of people, enthusiastic exhibitors, and enthusiastic contacts. The just concluded Third China International Consumer Goods Expo has gathered domestic and foreign merchants, surpassing previous ones in terms of exhibition area, brand quantity, and other indicators. From this window, the world can feel the warmth of China's strong economic recovery and appreciate the charm and potential of China's large market. Since the beginning of this year, market sentiment has been booming, project construction has been heating up, data indicators are improving, and signs of domestic demand recovery are becoming increasingly evident. ——Consumption and investment data are improving. According to data from the Bureau of Statistics in the first two months, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.5% year-on-year, reversing the three consecutive months of decline since October 2022 and continuing to recover from a high base in the same period last year. The growth rate of national fixed assets investment is 0.4 percentage points faster than that of 2022. Among them, the decline in real estate development investment narrowed by 4.3 percentage points compared to the full year of 2022. ——High frequency data continues to rise. The State Information Center's analysis of the daily interactive flow data found that in March, the daily average index increased significantly by 33.4 points compared with the low point in December last year. In the first three months of this year, the number of successful investment projects increased by 27.7% compared to the same period last year. The "Excavator Index" shows that the national average operating rate of construction machinery in March was 65.05%, an increase of 11.28 percentage points compared to February. ——Confidence research releases positive signals. The recently released "Questionnaire Survey Report on Urban Savings in the First Quarter of 2023" shows that 23.2% of residents tend to "consume more", an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous quarter; 58.0% of residents tend to save more, a decrease of 3.8 percentage points compared to the previous quarter; Residents who tend to invest more accounted for 18.8%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. Wang Qing, Chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, stated that the current macroeconomic situation has entered a recovery process, and consumer confidence is rebounding. Financial data shows that the promotion of broad credit is accelerating. From various data and performance, there are clear signs of a rebound in consumption and investment, with more and more positive factors in various aspects, and the trend is more significant than in previous years. Overall, the upward growth trend of China's economy driven by demand is now more clear, "said Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council. Experts suggest that the overall recovery of domestic demand is accompanied by uneven recovery, and effective demand in some areas has not yet been fully released. Taking consumption as an example, it is related to contact consumption such as catering and travel

Edit:He Chuanning Responsible editor:Su Suiyue

Source:Economic Information Daily

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