400000 people leave Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, and the Yangtze River Delta is gradually "halved"


Recently, various provinces have successively released the national economic development situation in 2022. In the context of "the national population will decrease by 850000 in 2022", the changes in local population data are particularly noteworthy. Of the 23 provinces that have been announced, Zhejiang ranks first with a net increase of 370000 people. As Guangdong, the "largest population province", has not yet disclosed data, it remains to be confirmed whether it can continue to hold the "champion of population growth"; Hubei and Anhui tied for second place with a net increase of 140000 people, while Jiangxi ranked fourth with an increase of 105800. Jiangsu and Guangxi also broke through double digits with a net increase of 100000 people. Overall, although six provinces have achieved double-digit population growth, excluding Guangdong, they have reached the same level as in 2021. However, the sharp decrease in incremental data has directly exposed the population pressure everywhere - on the one hand, the "outstanding" incremental figures in 2021 have been reduced in succession. In addition to nearly halving the increase in Zhejiang, the population growth in Hubei, Jiangsu, and Fujian decreased by 4074000, 181000, and 250000, respectively. Guangxi experienced the smallest decrease, with the increase decreasing from 180000 to 100000. At the same time, from a regional perspective, the downward trend is also evident. Among them, the permanent population growth in the Yangtze River Delta in 2022 fell below 1 million for the first time in a decade, with an actual increase of only 474600 people. The situation in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei is even less optimistic. After reducing 298400 people in 2021, the scale of population loss will further expand to 423000 in 2022. According to the academic perspective, once the negative population growth begins, it will continue for a long period of time. This means that attracting population and maintaining mechanical growth will be the focus of local competition in the coming years. After the "competition for people" in 2017, which pushed the population with certain education background and skills to basically achieve "zero threshold" settlement, it is time to start a new round of "competition for people". Yangtze River Delta: The increment has fallen below 500000. As of now, 16 of the 23 provinces that have disclosed data have experienced natural negative population growth. Among them, Shandong, Henan, Anhui, and Gansu experienced the first transition from "positive" to "negative", while Beijing experienced the second negative growth in 20 years after a brief negative growth in 2003. By comparison, there are 13 provinces with natural negative population growth in 2021. Of course, it is not surprising that more and more provinces are experiencing "negative growth". As a researcher at the Institute of Population and Labor Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said, when the fertility replacement level is below 2.1, "it will definitely move towards negative growth at some point in the future.". Natural growth is weak, and mechanical growth has become the main method for local "stabilizing population" - achieving net population growth by attracting foreign population. The above researcher mentioned that although Shanghai, Jiangsu, and other places have previously implemented relatively strict family planning policies, they have consistently performed well in terms of population size by attracting large numbers of foreign population. According to the data, in 2021, the natural population growth rates of Shanghai and Jiangsu turned negative for the first time, respectively -0.92 ‰ and -1.12 ‰. Zhejiang and Anhui maintained positive growth, but only 1 ‰ and 0.05 ‰. In this "tight balance" state, the annual net population increase in the Yangtze River Delta reached 1.0921 million people. By 2022,

Edit:Hou Wenzhe Responsible editor:WeiZe

Source:National Business Daily

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