The data in January "made a good start" and the pace of China's economic recovery is expected to accelerate


PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) was the first to be released in the monthly economic data, and January PMI naturally became the "first show" of the economic data in the opening year. Yesterday (January 31), the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in January, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the critical point, and the prosperity level rose significantly; The business activity index of non-manufacturing industry was 54.4%, up 12.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity level rebounded from the bottom. Experts said that the PMI rose sharply in January, reflecting that the economic recovery momentum in the first year exceeded expectations. At present, all departments and regions are rushing to seize the window period, the opportunity period and the critical period. With the precise, sufficient, advanced and coordinated efforts of various economic stabilization policies, the pace of China's economic recovery is expected to further accelerate and achieve better results faster. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the PMI of the manufacturing industry rose 3.1 percentage points to 50.1% in January, which is the same as last September and the highest level since last July. Among them, 18 of the 21 industries surveyed were higher than that of last month, indicating a rapid recovery of the manufacturing industry. "In January, the main component indexes of manufacturing PMI generally rose significantly." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said, "The reason behind this is the sharp rebound in household consumption after the impact of the epidemic weakened, which led to the improvement of manufacturing market demand." In January, the PMI of enterprises of all sizes rebounded. The PMI of large, medium and small enterprises was 52.3%, 48.6% and 47.2% respectively, higher than 4.0, 2.2 and 2.5 percentage points last month. In addition, business confidence has increased significantly. In January, the expected index of production and operation activities was 55.6%, 3.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous month, and rose to a higher boom range, reflecting the positive expectations of enterprises for the recovery and development of the market in the near future. In the non-manufacturing sector, the non-manufacturing business activity index in January was 54.4%, up 12.8 percentage points from the previous month. The National Bureau of Statistics evaluated the prosperity level of non-manufacturing industry in January as "bottoming out and rising". "Bottom" naturally refers to "epidemic bottom". "In January, the PMI index of the service industry rose the most, in line with the general law of the epidemic fluctuation. Among them, the business activity index of retail, accommodation, catering and other contact service industries that were most affected by the epidemic in the early stage were higher than that of the previous month by more than 24 percentage points, and all returned to the expansion range," Wang Qing said. "The recovery of prosperity in January was better than expected." Pang Ming, chief economist and director of research department of Jones Lang LaSalle in Greater China, said in an interview with "With the rapid resumption of work and production of enterprises after the Spring Festival, it is expected that the manufacturing PMI sub-indexes and other relevant indicators will have a sustained and comprehensive recovery and improvement in February." The pace of China's economic recovery is expected to accelerate before the multi-regional policy is advanced, Taking into account the factors such as the "peak" of the epidemic, the decline in the operating rate of the Spring Festival holiday and the need for the overall stable growth policy to be launched after the National "two sessions" in March, the analysts generally expect that the time node of China's economic recovery is high probability

Edit:wangwenting Responsible editor:xiaomai

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