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Why does the Bank of Japan stick to the loose "isolated island" and do not raise interest rates

2022-09-23   

Recently, many central banks have raised interest rates intensively. The Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 75 basis points again on the 21st, and Switzerland walked out of the negative interest rate by announcing the second interest rate increase in the year on the 22nd. In sharp contrast, the Bank of Japan announced after the monetary policy meeting ended on the 22nd that it would continue to adhere to the current ultra loose monetary policy. Japan became the only major economy to maintain a negative interest rate policy. The Bank of Japan sticks to the loose "isolated island", which makes the Japanese economy and financial market face more and more pressure. The yen depreciates by about 25% this year, which is likely to weaken further in the future, and Japan's price increase may also continue to expand. Experts here believe that the Bank of Japan cannot choose to raise interest rates in the face of the global interest rate surge triggered by the Federal Reserve's radical interest rate increase, which mainly has three main reasons. First of all, following the US interest rate hike will curb demand, which is not conducive to the sustained recovery of the Japanese economy. According to the data released by the Ministry of General Affairs on the 20th, Japan's core consumer price index (CPI) excluding fresh food rose 2.8% year-on-year in August, exceeding the 2% inflation target set by the central bank for five consecutive months. However, the governor of the central bank, Hideki Kuroda, believes that Japan's price rise is an import inflation, not a demand expansion inflation, which can not stimulate consumption, but inhibit consumer demand. Kenji Suzuki, an economics professor at the University of Japanese Studies, pointed out that Japan's price rise was mainly driven by the international energy price rise. In August, the core CPI excluding the factors of energy and fresh food rose only 1.6% year on year. At the same time, enterprise prices have risen for 18 consecutive months, up 9% in August. Consumer prices have not risen significantly in line with the prices of enterprises, indicating that consumer demand is quite weak, and it is necessary to continue to maintain loose policies. According to the analysis of Hideki Kumano, chief economist of the First Life Economics Research Institute of Japan, the Bank of Japan's goal is "as the economy improves, wages rise, prices also rise steadily". The current situation is far from what the Bank expected. According to the report recently released by the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Labor, the average wage of Japanese workers in July fell 1.3% year on year after removing the factor of price change, and the actual wage fell year on year for four consecutive months. Kuroda told the media that under the background of strong interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, even if the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by a small margin, it would not reverse the trend of sharp decline of the yen, but might endanger Japan's economic recovery. Secondly, the Japanese government is heavily indebted, and the interest rate hike will weigh heavily on Japan's finance. According to the data of the Ministry of Finance, Japan's public debt balance, including local government debt, will account for 256.9% of GDP in 2021. By the end of fiscal year 2022 (April 2022 to March 2023), the total balance of Japanese government bonds is expected to reach 1026 trillion yen. Kokuro, an economics professor at the University of Law and Political Science of Japan, pointed out that raising interest rates would have a huge impact on Japan's finance. At the current interest rate level, the Japanese government will spend nearly 10 trillion yen every year just to pay the interest on government bonds. If the central bank raises the interest rate by 1 percentage point, the government will pay about 10 trillion yen more interest every year. Third, raising interest rates will also increase the burden on enterprises. Kumano Yingsheng believes that although Japan eventually needs to normalize its monetary policy and it will be inevitable to raise interest rates, many enterprises are in trouble under the epidemic and have increased debts

Edit:He Chuanning Responsible editor:Su Suiyue

Source:Xinhua

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