World rice prices have risen to a 12 year high, with wheat supply or simultaneous shortages

2023-08-07

According to the report of Reuters on August 4, the Food and Agriculture Organization said on August 4 that with the domestic rice prices of major exporting countries rising due to strong demand and India taking measures to restrict exports, the organization's rice price index rose 2.8% month on month in July, reaching the highest level in nearly 12 years. The organization stated that the FAO Whole Rice Price Index, which tracks rice prices in major exporting countries, averaged 129.7 points in July, higher than the previous month's 126.2 points. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, the average value of the index in July was almost 20% higher than the annual average of 108.4 points last year, and it is the highest since September 2011. The comprehensive World Food Price Index of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations also rose in July, rebounding from a two-year low. India, which accounts for 40% of the world's rice exports, ordered the suspension of its exports of the largest category of rice in July to stabilize domestic rice prices. Due to abnormal weather conditions endangering production, domestic rice prices in India have risen to multi-year highs in recent weeks. India, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Pakistan are also major rice exporting countries. China, the Philippines, Benin, Senegal, Nigeria, and Malaysia are important importers of this major food variety. In addition, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported on August 4 that there was growing concern about the possible tightening of food supply, including rice and wheat. India, the world's largest rice exporter, has suspended rice exports except for some high-end varieties in order to prioritize ensuring domestic supply. The export price of rice from Thailand, which has indicator significance, has skyrocketed after India issued an export ban, reaching an 11 year high. Wheat prices also reached a peak in five months in late July. The risk of global food inflation happening again is increasing. The offshore price of 5% broken white rice in Thailand has risen to $607.5 per ton as of July 27th, an increase of $62.5 or 11.5% since India announced a ban on rice exports on July 20th, setting a new high since May 2012. The main opportunity for the surge in rice prices is the decision of India, the world's top rice exporter. On July 20th, the Indian Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution announced a ban on the export of rice other than high-end varieties such as Indian fragrant rice, citing the increase in exports leading to an increase in domestic rice prices as a way to "lower prices and ensure domestic consumption". This has had a significant impact on global rice supply and demand. According to statistics from the US Department of Agriculture, India's rice exports reached 22.5 million tons from 2022 to 2023, accounting for 40% of the global market, while Thailand, second only to India, exported only 8.5 million tons during the same period. The El Ni ñ o phenomenon, which occurred again after seven years, increased the risk of rice harvest failure, because when the El Ni ñ o event occurred, the Sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean was abnormally high, and Southeast Asia, where rice is mainly grown, was afraid of drought due to insufficient rainfall. According to predictions, as supply decreases, global rice inventories will drop to 170.42 million tons by the end of 2023 to 2024, reaching a new low since 2017 to 2018. And with the changes in meteorological conditions

Edit:Hou Wenzhe    Responsible editor:WeiZe

Source:Reference News

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